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S&P 500 defies seasonal headwinds

Line chart of the S&P 500 with Bollinger Bands, highlighted support/resistance zones, trend lines plotted and an RSI indicator plotted below.

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.

The first week of August began volatile, but in the end brought a tailwind for the stock markets. After a weak start to the week, the S&P 500 Index proved robust and is now trading just a few points below its recent record high. The temporary turbulence was caused by disappointing US labor market data, new tariff announcements by the US government and mixed company reports. Ultimately, however, hopes of continued strong corporate earnings and a supportive monetary policy prevailed, enabling the S&P 500 to recoup its losses. Week-on-week, the index gained around 2.4 % and closed at 6,389 points on Friday. This is less than 1 % short of a new all-time high.

Chart technology: all-time high in sight

Despite the brief setback at the beginning of August, the S&P 500 remains in an intact upward trend. The index is trading only slightly below its record high (just over 6,400 points) and has thus made up for all of the previous week's losses. The S&P 500 received technical support in the 6,220-point range. The important short-term zones are therefore the 6400 - 6420 points on the upside and the support at 6220 - 6250 points. Both resistance and support are reinforced by the upper and lower Bollinger bands respectively. A breakout above or below one of the bands should therefore lead to new momentum.

Line chart of the S&P 500 with Bollinger Bands, highlighted support/resistance zones, trend lines plotted and an RSI indicator plotted below.
S&P 500 daily chart

Advance Decline Line takes a breather

In the current year, the Advance Decline Line has once again proven to be a leading indicator with an exceptionally high hit rate. Both in terms of the long-term picture and in the short to medium term, the signals of the AD Line should therefore be heeded. 

The most recent breakout in the S&P 500 (end of July) was only narrowly confirmed by the AD line, which was already an initial warning signal that the index could also enter correction mode in the short term. If a sustained signal emerges in the Advance Decline Line in the coming days or weeks (breakout above the last high or below the last low), this is very likely to trigger a move in the S&P 500 in the same direction. If, on the other hand, the S&P 500 index were to break out to the upside without confirmation from the AD line (bearish divergence), there would be a high probability that this was a false breakout.

A line chart showing the S&P 500 Index and its Advance-Decline line from July 2022 to August 2023, with both measures generally moving upwards.
Advance Decline Line

Strong reporting season underpins upward trend

Despite some macroeconomic uncertainties, the US corporate landscape is proving to be fundamentally extremely robust. In the current reporting season for the second quarter, the vast majority of S&P 500 companies are beating analysts' estimates. By the beginning of August, around two thirds of all S&P 500 companies had presented their figures. 82 % of the companies reported higher profits than expected. This figure is well above the 5-year average of 78 %. The cumulative increase in profits is likely to be around 10-13 %, after only around 5 % had been expected before the start of the earnings season. This would mark the third consecutive quarter of double-digit profit growth. 

Shares from the technology and communication services sector in particular shone with positive surprises, led by the „Magnificent 7“. However, sales increases are also evident in broader sectors: A total of 79 % of companies exceeded their sales expectations. On average, turnover rose by around % compared to the previous year. Despite tariffs and higher costs, business is therefore still going surprisingly well. Many companies have so far been able to avoid price increases as inventories were built up in the first quarter. At the same time, the AI boom is fueling the tech sector and also pulling the broad market upwards. Heavyweights such as Microsoft and Meta once again reported strong growth. This strengthens confidence that the upturn is based on a solid foundation. 

However, US equities are no longer cheap: at around 22, the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is well above the 5-year average of 19.9. The high valuation is only likely to remain justified if the earnings momentum continues and the macroeconomic risks do not materialize.

Seasonal headwinds remain possible

Although August and September are statistically rather weak months, the market is currently remarkably stable. A brief breather or a correction of a few percent would therefore not be unusual, especially if the market breadth were to weaken in the short term (e.g. weaker Advance Decline Line). However, actively shorting the market in this environment is not a good idea: overall, we are still in a historic bull market in which setbacks tend to be bought.

Author: Tobias Schmid
Date: 11.08.2025

A man with slicked-back hair and a trimmed beard, wearing a navy blue suit jacket and a white shirt, looks into the camera with a slight smile. Industrial background.
Tobias Schmid

Tobias Schmid has been a trader and analyst since 2008 and specializes in trading futures options and equity options. His strategies and analysis methods are based on a combination of technical analysis, intermarket analysis and sentiment analysis. Tobias Schmid is also the founder of Fomo Financea financial website for active traders, investors and options traders.

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