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Strong rally in the S&P 500, but overheated in the short term

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.

The S&P 500 closed higher for the ninth consecutive week and has now risen by about 20% since the correction in March, with virtually no pause. This strong upward trend was driven primarily by very robust corporate earnings growth. Large-cap technology and AI stocks, in particular, impressed with strong quarterly results, high margins, and further rising growth expectations.

At the same time, the market is significantly overbought in the short term. After nine positive weeks in a row, new all-time highs, and a very steep rise without significant consolidation, the risk increases that at least a technical consolidation or a pullback will become necessary. What's important to note: an overbought market is not automatically a sell signal. In strong trends, indices can remain overbought longer than many market participants expect. However, it does mean that the risk-reward ratio is no longer as attractive in the short term as it was at the end of March.

Technology sector 50% up

The remarkable strength of technology stocks has been particularly striking in recent weeks. Since the rally began in late March, the XLK technology sector has gained about 50%, making it by far the strongest sector in the S&P 500. This was driven primarily by major winners in the fields of artificial intelligence, semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, data centers, and software.

However, this extreme strength also has a downside: when a single sector dominates a rally so strongly, there is always the risk of a lack of market breadth. The index then continues to rise, but is increasingly carried by a few large winners. Should profit-taking occur in precisely these stocks, it could put a short-term strain on the entire S&P 500.

However, the rally was not quite as one-sided as one might initially assume. Other growth sectors also benefited. The Consumer Discretionary sector (XLY) rose by 14.4%, Communication Services (XLC) gained 7.16%, and Industrials (XLI) advanced by 10.55%. This shows that the upward movement was not limited exclusively to technology. By contrast, the defensive sectors—Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Health Care—performed more weakly. This is generally consistent with a market environment in which investors tend to seek risk and favor growth stocks.

Performance of the 11 S&P 500 Market Sectors Since March 30

S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index also at a new record

Another sign that market breadth is supporting the trend, despite the excessive strength of the technology sector's performance, is the development of the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index. While the classic S&P 500 is weighted by market capitalization, giving large companies like Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, or Meta a particularly high influence, the Equal Weighted Index gives equal weighting to all 500 stocks.

This shows how the average stock in the S&P 500 is performing. If the regular S&P 500 rises, but the Equal Weighted Index lags, it's often an indication of a lack of market breadth. If both indices reach new highs, on the other hand, it's generally a positive signal for a healthy trend.

This is exactly what is happening right now: The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index has also broken out to a new all-time high. This suggests that the rally is not only being driven by a few mega-caps, but that the broad market of stocks is at least partially confirming the overall upward trend. From a market breadth perspective, this is a positive sign.

S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index daily chart

Advance Decline Line fails at local high

The Advance Decline Line is also in an uptrend but has not been able to break out to a new high in recent weeks, and therefore (yet) does not confirm the S&P 500's signal. Should the A/D Line follow suit in the coming days, it would be another important trend-confirming signal. Until then, the divergence between the S&P 500 and the A/D Line is an indication that the market is susceptible to a correction, at least in the short term. However, a true warning signal from a market breadth perspective would only emerge if the A/D Line were to fall below the interim low of May 19th.

Advance Decline Line Tageschart

Author: Tobias Schmid
Date: 06/01/2026

A man with slicked-back hair and a trimmed beard, wearing a navy blue suit jacket and a white shirt, looks into the camera with a slight smile. Industrial background.
Tobias Schmid

Tobias Schmid has been a trader and analyst since 2008 and specializes in trading futures options and equity options. His strategies and analysis methods are based on a combination of technical analysis, intermarket analysis and sentiment analysis. Tobias Schmid is also the founder of Fomo Financea financial website for active traders, investors and options traders.

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