In addition to the trade disputes, DAX investors are looking in particular to the ECB's key interest rate decision on Thursday and the subsequent press conference with Christine Lagarde. The publication of the official US labor market report is also likely to cast its shadow in the meantime.
DAX
Source: TradingView
US tariffs on steel and aluminum imports come into force - trade dispute remains in focus
The renewed momentum in the trade dispute has caught up with investors on both sides of the Atlantic. The increase in import tariffs on steel and aluminum to the United States announced by the US President will take effect today. The import duty will double from 25 to 50 percent for most imports. The aim is to "take more effective action against foreign countries that continue to dump surplus steel and aluminum at low prices in the United States".
The new tariff rate applies to all trading partners except the UK. The USA has already concluded a provisional trade agreement with the United Kingdom. The European Commission is still in talks with the US government to avoid further increases.
ADP employment and ISM data in focus
From the perspective of the economic calendar, today's ADP employment data (14:15) should provide the first foretaste of the "NFPs" expected on Friday.
The ISM index for the service sector should also attract attention today at 16:00.
ECB could cut the deposit rate again - Christine Lagarde is likely to attract attention
Thursday is likely to be particularly exciting with the expected ECB key interest rate decision (14:15). Christine Lagarde is expected to address the public just 30 minutes later. Investors should scan this speech for monetary policy clues.
It is possible that the European monetary authority could once again lower interest rates and reduce the deposit rate by 25 basis points to a level of 2.0 percent.
According to preliminary figures, inflation in the eurozone fell to 1.9% in April, which is below the target of 2.0%. However, core inflation fell to 2.3%.
US labor market report expected on Friday - economists expect a decline in job creation compared to the previous month
The US labor market report (Non-Farm Payrolls) is likely to provide important impetus on Friday (14:30). Economists currently expect non-farm payrolls to increase by 130,000 units, following 177,000 new jobs in the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%, unchanged from the previous month.
Last but not least, investors should also pay attention to the development of average hourly wages.
