Investors are likely to be looking forward with great anticipation to this evening's Fed meeting. The publication of the official US labor market report, which is expected on Friday, should also cast its shadow. Last but not least, it is important to keep an eye on the ongoing reporting season on both sides of the Atlantic.
DAX
Source: TradingView
Trade dispute between USA and China without result - hopes for Trump
Last Sunday, it was announced that Donald Trump wants to impose a 15% tariff on almost all products from Europe to the USA.
However, the trade relationship between the world's two largest economies is another uncertainty factor. The third round of trade talks in Stockholm between representatives of the US and China apparently failed to reach a final agreement.
According to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the US President will now decide whether to extend the tariff pause between the United States and the People's Republic.
ADP employment data could provide first foretaste of NFPs - Fed could pause interest rates
A foretaste of the Non-Farm Payrolls This afternoon's ADP employment data (14:15) could provide the first indication.
While the Fed's key interest rate decision is expected at 20:00, attention is likely to focus on the FOMC press conference with Jerome Powell from 20:30.
According to the CME Group's "Fed Watch Tool", it is rather unlikely that there will be a rate cut this evening. There is a 97.9 percent probability that there will be a pause in interest rates. The current interest rate range is 4.25 to 4.50 percent.
German inflation data and US price data ahead on Thursday
On Thursday, the focus in Germany will be on consumer price data (14:00).
At 14:30 on the US side, the core rate of personal consumption expenditure (price index) could provide monetary policy signals.
On Friday morning, the first important economic data to watch will be the inflation figures for the eurozone (11:00 a.m.).
US jobs data in focus on Friday - monetary policy stimulus conceivable
Overall, however, the last day of the trading week is likely to be dominated by the publication of official US labor market data. In addition to the employment figures, it is important to keep an eye on the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings (14:30).
The ISM Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing sector rounds off the trading week from the perspective of the economic calendar.
Reporting season continues on both sides of the Atlantic
In the US reporting season, the figures for the past financial quarter from Meta (ISIN: US30303M1027) and Microsoft (ISIN: US5949181045). On Thursday, attention is likely to turn to Amazon (ISIN: US0231351067), Apple (ISIN: US0378331005) and Coinbase (US19260Q1076).
In Germany, Siemens Healthineers (ISIN: DE000SHL1006), Mercedes-Benz (ISIN: DE0007100000), Porsche (ISIN: DE000PAG9113), BASF (ISIN: DE000BASF111) and Symrise (ISIN: DE000SYM9999) are reporting today. On Thursday the focus will be on Heidelberg Materials (ISIN: DE0006047004) and on Friday Daimler Truck (ISIN: DE000DTR0CK8).
