After last Friday's price shock, the situation on the German stock market (DAX) has calmed down again for the time being. However, uncertainty about future US monetary policy, possibly under the leadership of Kevin Warsh, is likely to remain a sword of Damocles hanging over the heads of market participants. For the remainder of the week, investors should pay particular attention to the key interest rate decision by the European Central Bank (ECB), especially as the publication of the official US labor market data has been postponed due to the partial US government shutdown, which has now been resolved. The reporting season could also continue to provide impetus.
DAX
Speculation about the shape of the monetary policy of the possible Fed successor continues
The discussions surrounding the possible successor to the Fed are likely to continue to accompany investors. Donald Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the new head of the Fed last Friday. It remains unclear what the future shape of US monetary policy is likely to look like in this context. Investors obviously see Warsh as more of a „hawk“, i.e. someone who stands for a restrictive monetary policy. On the other hand, Trump has repeatedly put pressure on the current Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, in the recent past and called for interest rate cuts. It remains to be seen whether the future head of the Fed will comply with the US president's wishes.
Focus on US economic data - ECB to decide on key interest rate level on Thursday
On the US side, the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index for the service sector is expected today (16:00).
On Thursday, the European monetary watchdog will decide on the future key interest rate level (14:15). Half an hour later, from 14:45, investors should keep an eye on the press conference with ECB President Christine Lagarde and listen for monetary policy clues.
Publication of US labor market data postponed - US government shutdown now resolved
Investors had actually hoped for the publication of the „Non-Farm Payrolls“ on Friday. However, as the US Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics) announced on Monday, the jobs report will not be published as planned, according to a spokesperson for the agency. The report on the number of job vacancies in December, which was originally scheduled for Tuesday, was also not published.
However, US President Donald Trump signed the budget package in the night from Tuesday to Wednesday and ended the shutdown in the US after around four days.
German reporting season likely to provide impetus - US tech companies also in focus
In Germany, the focus today is on figures from Infineon (ISIN: DE0006231004) and QIAGEN (NL0012169213), and on Thursday from Siemens Healthineers (DE000SHL1006) and Hannover Re (ISIN: DE0008402215).
In the USA, Google parent company Alphabet A (ISIN: US02079K3059) is presenting its figures for the past financial quarter today. Amazon (ISIN: US0231351067) and MicroStrategy (ISIN: US5949724083) will report on Thursday.
