The glass is currently neither half full nor half empty. Investors remain torn between the hope of diplomacy in the Iran war and the fear of an endless tug-of-war. The geopolitical risks are accompanied by high oil prices and record-breaking bond yields.
Even though investors on the German stock market are currently cooking their own soup to a certain extent, this should not be mistaken for the lingering risks of a geopolitical and monetary nature.
In addition to new inflation data for the Federal Republic of Germany, investors are focusing this week on new job data from the United States. Additionally, several Fed officials are expected to speak out, which could provide monetary policy impetus.
DAX
Early indications of the US labor market through JOLTs and ADP data conceivable – Fed officials in focus
On Tuesday, the so-called „JOLTs“ (Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey) could provide important impetus (16:00) and thus provide a first glimpse of the official US labor market data.
At the same time, Alberto Musalem (St. Louis/13:30), Michelle Bowman (17:00), Governor Michael Barr (18:40), Austan Goolsbee (Chicago/19:00), John Williams (20:00), as well as Fed Board member Christopher Waller (21:00) are also expected.
Preliminary inflation rates for the German side are expected on Wednesday at 14:00. Economists expect a month-on-month inflation rate of 3.2 percent for September, after 2.9 percent in August (compared to the same month of the previous year).
At the same time, attention should also be paid to the ADP employment data, which, like the „JOLTs“, could provide initial indications regarding the US job market.
Price data and GDP for the USA on Wednesday in focus
Accordingly, at 2:30 p.m., the core rate for personal consumption expenditures in the United States will be on the agenda. In this case, an increase of 0.3 percent compared to the previous month is expected (previously: 0.2 percent).
The GDP growth rate for the United States should also be taken into account. Experts expect an increase of 1.5 percent compared to the previous quarter, which would represent a significant slowdown compared to the comparison period (2.1 percent).
On Thursday, the ISM Purchasing Managers for the manufacturing sector are expected to send important signals (16:00).
EU inflation data and US job data in focus on Friday
On Friday, preliminary inflation figures for the Eurozone will be released in the morning (11:00). A rate of inflation of 3.6 percent is expected in September compared to the same month last year (previously: 3.2 percent).
As a week-end highlight, US job data is expected at 14:30. Economists expect a total of 84,000 new jobs outside the agricultural sector, following 162,000 new jobs in August.
In addition, an unemployment rate of 4.1 percent is expected.
Oil price (West Texas Intermediate)
US government bonds (10 years)
