Despite geopolitical and monetary policy uncertainties, the DAX could again attempt to break above the psychologically important mark of 25,000 points. The stock market may have become accustomed to the constant crisis noise by now. While geopolitical headlines still trigger reactions, investor resilience appears to have significantly increased.
With each further quarterly report, attention is likely to shift away from geopolitical risks towards earnings, outlooks, and valuations. Should corporate figures on both sides of the Atlantic prove convincing, the earnings season could at least temporarily push the Iran conflict out of the center of investor attention. In particular, the ECB's key interest rate decision, scheduled for Thursday, is likely to cast its shadow in the near future.
DAX
Iran War: Geopolitical tensions between Tehran and Washington continue for now
Despite recent ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Iran conflict, investors do not seem to fear a further escalation for now, especially since hopes for diplomacy between Washington and Tehran are likely to remain. However, an escalation of tensions could dampen overall risk appetite. In this context, developments must continue to be closely monitored. In mid-June, both warring parties had still prepared a peace agreement. However, according to Tehran's view, this is no longer valid after the escalation at the beginning of the month.
ECB could leave key interest rate unchanged – Christine Lagarde in focus
From the perspective of the economic calendar, Thursday is expected to be particularly exciting with the ECB's central bank meeting. While the key interest rate decision is expected at 2:15 PM, President Christine Lagarde is likely to address the public half an hour later. Investors should pay attention to potential monetary policy impulses in this context. The so-called deposit facility rate is currently at 2.25 percent. The ECB only adjusted the interest rate level upwards by 25 basis points in June. It is possible that the ECB could hold its ground on key interest rates on Thursday.
Economic data rounds off trading week – significant impulses possible
On the last trading day of the week, new data on GfK consumer confidence (8:00 AM) should be noted first.
Preliminary figures from the German Purchasing Managers (S&P Global) for the services, services sector, and „all“ sectors are to be noted at 9:30 AM. The counterparts for the Eurozone (10:00 AM) and the USA (3:45 PM) are also likely to send important economic signals.
US earnings season continues to gain momentum – numbers galore also begin in Frankfurt
In the already ongoing US earnings season, the results of Alphabet (A) (ISIN: US02079K3059) and Tesla (ISIN: US88160R1014) for the past business quarter are in focus today. On Thursday, for example, Intel (ISIN: US4581401001) will report, and on Friday, American Express (ISIN: US0258161092).
After the stock market closes, the figures from Deutsche Börse (ISIN: DE0005810055) are expected here today. On Thursday, Sartorius (ISIN: DE0007165631) and SAP (ISIN: DE0007164600) will release their figures, followed by Volkswagen (ISIN: DE0007664039) on Friday.
