The trade dispute is likely to remain one of the main topics of discussion. In particular, the publication of the official US labor market report on Friday should cast its shadow. However, a new development could provide a sigh of relief in the smouldering tariff dispute. Yesterday evening, Donald Trump signed an executive order to mitigate the punitive tariffs for the automotive industry.
Please note that the stock exchange doors in Frankfurt am Main will be closed on Thursday due to the Labor Day holiday (May 1).
DAX
Source: TradingView
German inflation in focus - ADP employment data likely to provide first foretaste of "NFPs"
The economic calendar promises possible impulses in the afternoon with the preliminary inflation data for the Federal Republic of Germany (14:00).
Only a short time later (14:15), the ADP employment data should provide a first taste of the official US labor market data (non-farm payrolls), which will be published on Friday. In addition to the publication of gross domestic product (GDP), attention is likely to focus in particular on the so-called "PCE deflator" for personal consumption expenditure (14:30). Investors are hoping for important inflation signals in this context and thus possibly monetary policy stimuli.
Stock exchange doors will remain closed in Frankfurt am Main on Thursday due to the holiday
While there is no trading in Germany on Thursday, stock market activity continues in the USA. However, the only focus there in the afternoon will be on the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing sector (16:00).
Focus on EU inflation on Friday - US job creation could lose momentum
On Friday, EU inflation data is likely to attract attention first (11:00 am).
The second half of the day should be dominated by the publication of new US jobs data (14:30). Economists expect non-farm payrolls to increase by 135,000 units, after 228,000 new jobs in the previous month. The unemployment rate could remain at 4.20 percent, unchanged from the previous month. Average hourly wages are also expected to rise by 3.90% compared to the same month last year, which is more than in the same period last year (3.80%). In this context, inflation concerns could pick up speed again, as fears of a wage-price spiral are likely to increase.
US reporting season continues to pick up speed - German carmakers disappoint
In the reporting season, today should be particularly exciting with the business figures for the past quarter from Meta and Microsoft. Amazon, Apple and MicroStrategy will report on Thursday.
In Germany, the figures from Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen were already in the spotlight today. Both car manufacturers reported a slump in profits for the first quarter. Mercedes-Benz was confronted in particular with weak business in the Chinese market in the first quarter. Profits fell by 43 percent to 1.73 billion euros. At Volkswagen, profits fell by around 41 percent to 2.19 billion euros in the first three months of the year.
Mercedes-Benz Group AG
Source: TradingView
Volkswagen AG
Source: TradingView
