Despite the impasse in the customs dispute between the USA and the EU, market participants could continue to target the record high of 24,479 points from the beginning of June. Investors will be focusing on the Fed minutes this Wednesday evening, which could provide monetary policy stimulus.
Even if the economic data calendar is comparatively manageable this trading week, there is always the possibility of important impulses.
DAX
Source: TradingView
US government wants to comment on trade with other countries
This Wednesday morning (local time), the US government wants to make a statement on trade with at least seven countries and on other countries in the afternoon, Trump said on his short message service Truth Social. However, it remained unclear whether this would involve a trade agreement or new tariffs.
However, investors are still in the dark when it comes to the trade dispute between the USA and the European Union.
"We're probably two days away from sending them a letter. We're in talks with them. I just want you to know that a letter means a deal," Trump said. He was asked by a journalist whether he was confident of a deal with the EU.
Fed minutes could send monetary policy signals -
Stock market participants are likely to focus their attention this evening on the transcripts of the Fed's last meeting (20:00). In this context, investors are hoping for clues about the shape of US monetary policy.
The CME Group's "Fed Watch Tool" currently estimates the chance of an interest rate cut at the Fed's upcoming meeting on July 30 at just 4.7%. In contrast, there is a 95.3% probability that there will be another interest rate pause.
The picture only looks different again at the meeting on September 17. Here, the chance of the Fed lowering interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point is put at 62.8%. The interest rate band itself currently stands at 4.25 to 4.50 percent.
German inflation data and various Fed representatives in focus on Thursday
On Thursday, the publication of the final inflation rates for the Federal Republic of Germany (08:00) could provide the first impetus.
In the afternoon, initial claims for US unemployment benefits (14:30) and various speeches by Fed representatives are on the agenda. In addition to Alberto Musalem from the Fed's St. Louis branch (16:00), Fed Governor Christopher Waller (19:15) and Mary Daly (San Francisco/20:30) are expected.
