Investors are likely to focus on the partial government shutdown in the US on Wednesday night. Concerns about the associated effects could dampen general risk appetite. Today, as well as in the second half of the week, investors should keep an eye on the planned publication of important US economic data. It should be noted that stock market trading in Frankfurt am Main is taking place despite the German Unity Day holiday.
DAX
Source: TradingView
Senate rejects stopgap budget - US government partially in shutdown
An interim budget was rejected by the Senate immediately prior to a bill. The House of Representatives had agreed to a so-called interim budget. This would have extended funding until November 21. As the financial year ended on September 30, the US government is in a partial shutdown.
The longer the shutdown lasts, the greater the impact on government services is likely to be. Around 750,000 employees are affected.
Non-systemically relevant authorities could stop working in this context. It remains to be seen whether this includes the office responsible for labor market statistics.
The Senate is planning new votes during the course of the day, according to reports. In view of the circumstances, the other chamber of parliament could still meet unscheduled this week. The bill must first be approved by both chambers so that it can be signed by US President Donald Trump.
ADP employment data could provide important impetus today
From an economic calendar perspective, things could get even more exciting this afternoon with the ADP employment data (14:15). Investors are likely to get their first taste of the US jobs report in this context.
The ISM Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing sector is on the daily agenda at 16:00.
Focus on US economic data- Monetary policy hints conceivable
On Thursday, attention will first turn to the weekly initial claims for US unemployment benefits (14:30).
The final purchasing managers' survey (HCOB) for the Federal Republic of Germany is expected on Friday morning (09:55).
Investors await the official US labor market data (Non-Farm Payrolls) at 14:30 on Friday.) In addition to average hourly earnings, the unemployment rate is also expected at the same time.
Economists currently estimate the increase in non-farm jobs at 50,000 units, after only 22,000 new jobs were created in August. At 4.3%, the unemployment rate is likely to remain as high as in the previous month.
It remains to be seen whether the US jobs data will actually be published due to the shutdown. There is a risk that the publication of various economic data could be postponed.
