In the coming trading days, investors in the gold market are likely to look in particular at new price data as well as the US jobs report. In this context, there could be monetary policy signals. The prospect of higher interest rates in the US tends to increase the opportunity cost of holding interest-free assets such as gold.
Gold (XAU/USD) chart on a monthly basis
Price data and labor market data from the USA are likely to set the tone this week.
Wednesday is likely to be dominated by U.S. price data (14:30). The core rate for personal consumption expenditures (PCE price index) is expected to be announced. This index is also considered the preferred inflation measure for the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed).
On Friday, investors will be watching the US labor market data (Non-Farm Payrolls), which will be released after monetary policy announcements (14:30). Economists expect an increase in the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector of 84,000 units, after 162,000 new jobs in August.
„CME’s “Fed Watch Tool” forecasts a 70.3 percent chance of an October interest rate hike
Investors are likely to expect monetary policy stimulus in this context. According to the CME Group’s „Fed Watch Tool,“ a total of 70.3 percent of market participants currently expect an interest rate hike, with a 0.25 percent increase in total for the meeting on October 28, and 29.7 percent expect an interest rate pause. A month ago, only 17.7 percent had expected a corresponding increase to the 4.00 to 4.25 percent range.
30-year US Treasury bonds
