In the trading week after Easter, the recent record chase could tend to continue, even if signs of overheating are gradually becoming apparent. Overall, there is still hope that key interest rates in the United States could soon fall. The US labor market report next Friday may shed some light on this.
PCE data without major surprises - China data should provide a tailwind
On Easter Monday, the stock exchange doors on Wall Street have already reopened. It remains to be seen how market participants will react to the US price data published on Good Friday. The so-called PCE deflator rose by 2.5 percent in February compared to the same month last year, which was as much as expected (2.5 percent) after 2.4 percent in January.
The core rate rose by 2.8 percent, which was also as high as economists had previously estimated, after 2.9 percent in the previous month.
The PMI production index for China is also likely to cause movement. At 50.8 points at the end of the month, this was better than expected (49.9 points). The value is therefore back above the expansion threshold of 50 points.
Economic data in focus - Fed representatives put in a marathon performance
New ISM data for the manufacturing sector will be published at the beginning of the new month. This sector is likely to have brightened up in March (48.4 points vs. 48.8 points).
On Tuesday, numerous speeches by Fed representatives will be scrutinized for monetary policy clues.
Speeches are planned by Fed Director Cook (00:50), Bowmann (16:10), Williams (New York/ 18:00), Mester (18:05) and Daly (San Francisco/ 19:30).
ADP gives first taste of US labor market data on Wednesday
In the middle of the week, the ADP data usually provides a first foretaste of the official US labor market report (non-farm payrolls) on Friday (14:30). A job increase of 130,000 is expected after 140,000 units.
The ISM Purchasing Managers' Index for services (March) is likely to provide impetus at 16:00.
Before a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell (18:10), Goolsbee will appear before the public (Chicago/ 18:00). Barr (19:10) and Kugler (22:30) are likely to provide further movement.
On Thursday, Goolsbee (18:45) and Mester (Cleveland/ 20:00) will speak again,
Thursday starts with further speeches by Musalem (St. Louis/ 01:20) and Kugler (01:30).
The official US labor market report will be published on Friday at 14:30. Experts expect non-farm job growth of 200,000 after 275,000 jobs in the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.9 percent.
The marathon of speeches by Fed representatives will be rounded off by Barkin (Richmond/ 3:15 p.m.) and Bowman (6:15 p.m.).
