The psychologically important 30,000-point mark remains within striking distance. Following the release of new US inflation data, monetary policy concerns may have lost some of their momentum. At the same time, investors continue to closely monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East. Furthermore, a subtle fear of missing out on a potential rally may still linger among market participants. Even though the market continues to defy the threat backdrop between Washington and Tehran and is currently giving no thought to potential risks and side effects, the threat of war with Iran still hangs like a classical sword of Damocles over investors' heads. The second half of the week could also provide important impulses with various economic data. Additionally, the shares of the AI chipmaker NVIDIA (ISIN: US67066G1040) are causing plenty of discussion.
NASDAQ 100 Index
Source: TradingView
„Fed Watch Tool signals chance of around 64 percent for interest rate pause at September meeting
According to the FedWatch tool, investors currently estimate a 63.9 percent chance of a rate pause at the next Federal Reserve meeting on September 16. In contrast, there is a 36.1 percent probability of a rate hike totaling a quarter of a percentage point. The target rate band itself currently stands at a range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent.
US inflation at 3.4 percent as high as expected
As data released by the US Department of Labor on Wednesday showed, US inflation was 3.4 percent in July, which was as high as expected in advance, following 3.5 percent in June.
Compared to the previous month, inflation rose by 0.1 percent, following -0.4 percent in June.
At the beginning of the month, the US labor market data (Non-Farm Payrolls) came in significantly worse than expected. Employment plummeted by 23,000, whereas economists had previously forecast an average increase of 80,000. At the same time, the job gains from the previous two months were downwardly revised by 103,000 positions. In addition, average hourly earnings at 0.1 percent were lower than previously anticipated (0.3 percent).
Given the recent data regarding the labor market and inflation, the monetary policy situation could continue to provide a supportive market environment.
NVIDIA wants to raise over 500 billion US dollars in debt capital from third parties to expand AI infrastructure
The recent announcement by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang caused a stir at the beginning of the week. The plan is to build an independent financing platform for the expansion of AI data centers. Over the coming years, more than 500 billion US dollars in third-party debt capital are to be raised. Nvidia has signed letters of intent with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR. According to company CEO Jensen Huang, this gives the group the option to secure up to 125 billion dollars or 25 of the potential deals.
„These financing platforms will help customers access scarce computing power at scale and build the AI factories that will power every industry and country in the AI era,“ Huang said. No financial details or timeline were disclosed.
Also likely to be exciting are Nvidia's quarterly figures for the past business quarter, which are expected for Wednesday, August 26, 2026.
Nvidia stock on a monthly basis
Source: Source: TradingView
Outlook: Producer prices, retail sales, and consumer confidence in focus
Later in the week, US producer prices were also in focus this afternoon, remaining unchanged at 0.0 percent compared to the previous month. An increase of 0.2 percent compared to June had been expected in advance, after prices had fallen by 0.3 percent in the comparison period.
On Friday, US retail sales as well as preliminary data on consumer confidence (at 2:30 PM) from Uni Michigan are also on the agenda (4:00 PM).
