The S&P 500 could remain under further pressure midweek. The focus will once again be on geopolitical risks in the Middle East as well as monetary policy developments across the Atlantic. In addition to the eagerly awaited US employment data, attention is also likely to turn to the publication of the US Federal Reserve's economic report, which is expected at 8:00 PM.
S&P 500
Iran War: Iran and USA continue to fight each other – Geopolitical risks are gaining momentum again
According to its own statements, the US military attacked so-called air defense positions and radar systems as well as equipment for laying naval mines during the night. The Iranian side responded in turn with missile and drone attacks on Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain, which are allied with the US. The Iran war thus remains anything rather than settled. Rather, the recent developments show that investors should not lose sight of the risks that have recently been smoldering.
At the same time, investors are likely to remain concerned about rising yields in the US bond market, despite the recent intervention by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the accompanying attempt to calm the markets. Resurgent tensions in the Middle East have fueled oil prices and thus also intensified inflation concerns.
30-year US Treasury bonds
Oil price (West Texas Intermediate)
ADP employment data could provide a first appetizer for US labor market data
Today, investors are focusing on the so-called ADP employment data (2:15 p.m.), which reflects the development of employment figures in the US private sector. Economists expect a total of 47,000 new jobs to have been created in August, which is slightly more than in the previous month (44,000).
The official US labor market data (Non-Farm Payrolls) is consequently on the agenda for Friday at 2:30 PM. In this case, 58,000 new jobs outside of US agriculture are expected, following a drop of 23,000 units reported in the previous month. According to estimates, the unemployment rate is likely to stand at 4.1 percent, unchanged from the previous month.
At the same time, the trend in average hourly wages should also prove interesting. In this case, an increase of 0.3 percent compared to the previous month is expected (previously: 0.1 percent), which could not least fuel inflation dynamics and thus intensify interest rate concerns.
„Fed Watch Tool: 70.2 percent of market participants expect interest rate hike at September meeting
According to the CME Group's „Fed Watch Tool,“ 70.2 percent of market participants now expect a total interest rate hike of a quarter of a percentage point, and only 29.8 percent expect an interest rate pause. A week ago, a total of 63.4 percent had still expected another interest rate pause at the meeting on September 16.
