The focus of the new trading week is likely to be on the Fed meeting in the middle of the week. Investors are hoping that the monetary policy headwinds on the other side of the Atlantic will abate. In addition, the eagerly awaited FOMC press conference with Jerome Powell is likely to be scrutinized in terms of monetary policy. Last but not least, developments in the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the political situation in France could continue to be important.
Ukraine-Russia conflict still in focus - sanctions against Russia?
The Ukraine-Russia conflict, which investors should keep an eye on, could increasingly become a talking point on the markets again.
US President Donald Trump only wants to impose sanctions against Russia if all NATO countries stop buying oil from Russia. „I am already imposing substantial sanctions against Russia if NATO countries agree and start doing the same, and if all NATO countries stop buying oil from Russia,“ Trump said on Truth-Social.
Developments in the French government could also regain momentum. French Prime Minister Bayrou lost a vote of confidence in the National Assembly at the beginning of last week. It remains to be seen whether the new Prime Minister Lecornu appointed by Emmanuel Macron can bring lasting calm to the markets.
US retail sales in focus on Tuesday - Fed meeting could decide the weal and woe
Retail sales for the United States are on the daily agenda on Tuesday (14:30).
In the middle of the week, the eagerly awaited Fed key interest rate decision could possibly decide the weal and woe (20:00). Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is also expected at the subsequent FOMC press conference from 20:30.
Last but not least, the Fed's projections on interest rates and the economy are also likely to be important.
It is also possible that the independence of the Fed could once again become an issue. In the recent past, US President Donald Trump has repeatedly called for interest rates to be cut in the US.
„Fed watch tool“ signals high chance of interest rate cut of basis points
The so-called „Fed Watch Tool“ of the CME Group estimates the chance (as of September 15, 2025, 11:00 a.m.) of a rate cut of a quarter of a percentage point at 94.2 percent and a 50 basis point cut of 5.8 percent.
On Thursday, initial claims for US unemployment benefits are usually of interest (14:30).
At the beginning of the month, US non-farm payrolls data for the month of August came in oddly weak at 22,000 new non-farm jobs, according to a government report. Economists polled by Reuters had previously expected an increase of 75,000 units.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Source: TradingView
