In addition to the transcripts of the latest Fed meeting, the focus of the new trading week will be on new US price data, which could provide monetary policy impetus. The Middle East conflict and the upcoming talks between Iran and the US should also be kept in mind.
Due to the holiday, however, the stock exchange doors on Wall Street will remain closed today for „Washington's Birthday“.
Talks between Washington and Tehran expected in Geneva on Tuesday
Developments in the Middle East conflict are likely to continue to accompany investors in the new trading week.
Negotiations between Washington and Tehran are planned for Tuesday in Geneva, according to reports. The Gulf state of Oman is to act as a mediator.
US President Trump had recently once again threatened to intervene militarily in Iran if no agreement was reached. However, Iran only wanted to talk about its nuclear program and the suspension of sanctions, it was reported.
Fed minutes could provide monetary policy signals on Wednesday
The „FOMC Minutes“ will consequently come into focus late on Wednesday evening (20:00). Investors are likely to scan these minutes for monetary policy clues.
According to the CME Group's „Fed Watch Tool“, 9.8% of market participants currently expect a rate cut of a quarter of a percentage point at the next Fed rate decision (March 18) and 90.2% expect a rate pause. The interest rate band itself currently stands at 3.50 to 3.75 percent.
Purchasing managers and US price data ahead on Friday
On Friday at 2:30 pm, the focus will be on the core rate for personal consumption expenditure and the GDP growth rate for the United States.
The first purchasing managers„ estimates from S&P Global round off the trading week (15:45). The index for the services, manufacturing and “total" sectors is expected.
Speech by Raphael Bostic on Friday afternoon ahead - speculation about Warsh's monetary policy could gain momentum
A speech by Raphael Bostic from the Atlanta branch of the central bank will also be held at the same time.
In any case, speculation surrounding Fed Chairman-designate Kevin Warsh and the associated question marks over future US monetary policy are likely to remain one of the key topics of discussion on the market.
Most recently, market participants feared that Warsh could undertake a so-called balance sheet contraction and withdraw liquidity from the market. In the past, the potential Fed successor was considered a so-called hawk and therefore an advocate of high interest rates. On the other hand, however, he could also comply with Trump's demands, who has repeatedly called for interest rate cuts. Doubts are likely to remain as to whether the Fed will ultimately succeed in maintaining its independence.
US reporting season comes to an end - retail stocks in focus
In the reporting season, which has now come to an end, the figures for the past financial quarter from Palo Alto Networks (ISIN: US6974351057) on Tuesday, Booking Holdings (ISIN: US09857L1089) on Wednesday and Alibaba (ISIN: US01609W1027) and Walmart (ISIN: US9311421039) on Thursday are worthy of note.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
