In the new trading week, investors are likely to pay particular attention to the publication of new US inflation data. The geopolitical uncertainties in Iran and Cuba should also be kept in mind. The start of the reporting season, which is traditionally heralded by the major US banks, could also provide important impetus.
Trump threatens Cuba - Geopolitical uncertainties are likely to continue to accompany investors
Following the US attack on Venezuela and the capture of Nicolás Maduro, US President Donald Trump has now threatened the Cuban government that it will no longer receive oil from Venezuela if it does not agree to a deal. He called for „a deal to be struck before it is too late“. However, it remained unclear what an agreement would consist of. It also remained unclear what would happen if Cuba did not agree to a deal.
Further potential for escalation in Iran
Investors are also likely to turn their attention to Iran again and again. According to Donald Trump, the USA is considering „very strong options“ for intervention against the regime in Iran. „The military is looking into it,“ Trump said on Sunday evening. Last Saturday, „the leaders of Iran“ called and said: „they want to negotiate“.
US inflation data could send monetary policy impulses on Tuesday
On Tuesday afternoon (14:30), investors can look forward to consumer prices including the drivers energy and food for the month of December. Attention should also be paid to the core inflation rate, which excludes the drivers energy and food. This rate is used by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in particular to assess inflation.
However, following the latest jobs report last Friday, the speculation of interest rate cuts for the upcoming January meeting has dimmed. According to the CME Group's "Fed Watch Tool", the majority of investors now expect a pause in interest rates (95%).
Further price data at a glance on Wednesday
Consequently, US producer prices and retail sales will be on the agenda on Wednesday (2:30 pm). This data could also provide important clues for monetary policy.
US reporting season traditionally starts with big banks
JP Morgan (ISIN: US46625H1005) and Bank of New York Mellon (ISIN: US0640581007) are expected to report their figures for the past quarter on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Bank of America (ISIN: US0605051046), Wells Fargo (ISIN: US9497461015) and City Group (ISIN: US1729674242) will report. On Thursday, figures are expected from Morgan Stanley (US6174464486), Goldman Sachs (ISIN: US38141G1040) and asset manager BlackRock.
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