Following the latest US jobs report last Friday, the focus in the new trading week is likely to be on US inflation data. This means that the question marks over the future shape of monetary policy in the United States could continue to occupy investors. Investors should also keep an eye on the ECB central bank meeting on Thursday.
Friday's US labor market data likely to continue to have an impact - interest rate cut fantasies could remain
The latest US labor market report could continue to concern investors at the start of the week. In August, only 22,000 new non-farm jobs were created, according to a government report on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had previously expected an increase of 75,000 jobs. The increase in jobs from the previous month was revised to 79,000, up from 73,000 previously.
As expected, the unemployment rate climbed by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3% in August.
Market participants may have seen the jobs data as a breeding ground for interest rate cut fantasies. According to the CME Group's "Fed Watch Tool", there is currently a 90.1% chance of a rate cut of a quarter of a percentage point at the scheduled meeting on September 17, 2025. The probability of a move totaling 50 basis points is even estimated at 9.9 percent.
Focus on US producer prices on Wednesday - US consumer prices could decide the weal and woe on Thursday
Producer prices for the United States on Wednesday (14:30) are also likely to be important, as they could provide monetary policy impetus, as could the US consumer price data.
ECB key interest rate decision could also be heard on Wall Street on Thursday
On Thursday, colleagues from the European Central Bank (ECB) will meet to decide on future monetary policy. While the key interest rate decision is expected at 14:15, ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to address the public from 14:45. It remains to be seen whether there will be a change in the key interest rate level. The outlook is likely to be important.
However, the trading day could be dominated by the publication of fresh US inflation data (14:30). According to economists, price pressure in the largest economy is likely to have been 2.90 percent year-on-year, slightly higher than in the previous month (2.70 percent).
At the same time, the weekly initial claims for US unemployment benefits should also be observed.
Finally, on Friday, the economic calendar will focus on consumer confidence (University of Michigan) at 16:00.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Source: TradingView
