In the new trading week, investors' attention is likely to focus in particular on the publication of fresh US labor market data. Prior to this, important economic data could be exciting. At the same time, investors should keep an eye out for new developments regarding the customs dispute.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Source: TradingView
Trade disputes could decide the weal and woe - recession worries on the rise
Trump announced last week that an additional 25% tariff would apply to all car imports in future. "They will go into effect on April 2nd and will be collected on the 3rd," Trump said. Individual parts on cars will also be affected, he added.
Only car imports that fall under the so-called North American USMCA free trade agreement with Canada and Mexico could be subject to a lower duty, depending on the proportion produced in the United States.
Uncertainty about the unforeseeable impact on the economy is likely to continue to drive investors in the coming trading days. It remains to be seen what approach the US president will take and whether he will be willing to talk to the eurozone after all.
A look at some Chinese economic data - ADP data should give a first taste of NFPs in the middle of the week
At the start of the week, data from China is already awaiting us. The PMI index for the non-manufacturing sector and the NBS PMI index for production are expected (03:30).
On Tuesday, attention is likely to turn once again to Chinese economic data with the Caixin PMI index for the manufacturing sector (03:45).
In the afternoon, the focus will be on the ISM index for the manufacturing sector and the JOLTS (Jop Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) (16:00). This data provides an overview of job vacancies and the dynamics of the labor market.
In the middle of the week, the ADP employment data could usually provide a first foretaste of the "NFPs" (14:15). An increase of 120,000 units is expected (previously 77,000 units).
On Thursday afternoon, the counterpart to the ISM PMI index for the service sector will be published (16:00), which should also attract attention.
Economists expect the US job market to deteriorate - interest rate cut fantasies could gain momentum
Friday is likely to be dominated by the publication of the official US labor market report (Non-Farm Payrolls), which will be released at 14:30. According to current estimates, economists expect an increase in non-farm payrolls of 128,000 units, after 151,000 new jobs were created in February. The separately calculated unemployment rate could consequently rise by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month to 4.2%.
A speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is on the daily agenda from 17:25 and should round off the trading week.
