Following the recent record chase, Wall Street is likely to start the new trading week with significantly more question marks. Investors are currently looking less for a new record than for a sustainable balance between Middle East risks, inflation, and interest rate concerns. Fresh US inflation data will be in particular focus on Friday. It should be noted that the stock exchange gates on Wall Street will remain closed today due to a holiday (Labor Day).
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Iran conflict likely to remain a topic – Geopolitical uncertainties continue to be in focus
The Iran conflict is also likely to continue to occupy market participants in the coming days. Over the weekend, mutual attacks between Iran and the US continued. Following an attack by the US military on three Iranian oil tankers, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly targeted several ships in turn.
Of interest to US investors as well is likely to be the ECB central bank meeting on Thursday. While the key interest rate decision is expected at 2:15 PM, the press conference with President Christine Lagarde moves into focus at 2:45 PM. In between (2:30 PM), the US producer prices will be published.
US inflation data in focus on Friday – monetary policy impact conceivable
The publication of US inflation data (2:30 PM) is likely to serve as the highlight of the week. Economists expect the inflation rate (including the drivers energy and food) in August to be 3.4 percent (compared to the same month last year) and thus as high as in July.
The core rate of inflation, which excludes said drivers, is estimated to stand at 2.4 percent, thus 0.1 percentage points lower than in the previous month.
Already last Friday, the US labor market data (non-farm payrolls) at 162,000 new jobs in August came in significantly better than expected (56,000), following 21,000 (revised: minus 23,000) in July. The unemployment rate had been as expected at 4.1 percent.
Preliminary consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan rounds off the trading week (4:00 PM).
