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US Weekly Outlook: Middle East risks and non-farm payrolls in focus

In the new trading week, investors are likely to focus in particular on the US labor market data on Friday.
Timo Emden in a dark suit and tie poses in front of a plain gray background and looks neutrally into the camera.
Timo Emden
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28.09.2026, 11:26 a.m.
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Last updated on 28.09.2026, 11:37 a.m.

Investors are currently putting one foot on the accelerator and the other on the brake. The window of opportunity for a resolution in the Middle East conflict has closed again somewhat. Even if the prospect of further talks between Iran and the USA prevents a complete reversal of sentiment, the tension is likely to remain high.
In the new trading week, investors are particularly looking forward to the publication of new US labor market data.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

“JOLTs”, China data and ADP data in focus

On Tuesday, new data on the so-called „JOLTs“ (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) could provide initial clues regarding the job market.

On the night from Tuesday to Wednesday (03:30), economic data from the heart of Germany will come to the fore, such as the NBS Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). These data could provide important guidance for Wednesday’s trading.

Usually in the middle of the week, the ADP employment data (14:15) will provide a first taste of the „NFPs“.

Focus on US price data on Wednesday afternoon – Monetary policy impulses conceivable

With the turmoil of the stock market week, new US price data could also decide what is expected for 14:30. The price index for personal consumption expenditures is likely to be closely watched. Economists expect a 0.3 percent increase compared to the previous month (previously: 0.2 percent).

The GDP growth rate (compared to the previous quarter) could also send important signals at the same time. In this case, only a growth of 1.5 percent is expected, after 2.1 percent previously.

With the ISM Purchasing Manager for the manufacturing sector, another potential catalyst is on the agenda on Thursday (16:00).

US job data on Friday: Job creation could weaken significantly compared to the previous month

On the first Friday of the new month, the official US labor market data (Non-Farm Payrolls) will be in the spotlight for investors (14:30). Economists expect a 84,000-unit increase in non-farm jobs this month, after a total of 162,000 new jobs were created in August. According to latest estimates, the unemployment rate could remain at 4.1 percent.

Oil price (West Texas Intermediate)

Legal notice

This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an investment recommendation within the meaning of Section 85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Timo Emden

Chief market analyst
CapTrader
Timo Emden has been analyzing international capital markets for over ten years and provides daily commentary on developments in the equity, bond, and commodity markets for CapTrader.
All posts by Timo Emden

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