Following last Wednesday's Fed meeting, important US economic data will be on the agenda in the last full trading week before Christmas 2025. In addition to the official US labor market data, the inflation figures for the US in particular are likely to be eagerly awaited. Attention should also be paid to geopolitical developments in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
Developments in the Ukraine-Russia conflict: „A lot of progress“ according to Steve Witkoff
On Sunday evening, the US side made a positive statement following talks with the Ukrainian side in the Chancellery. Special envoy Steve Witkoff, who is leading the US delegation, said that „much progress“ had been made. The parties involved are still struggling to end the conflict.
After the Fed meeting: investors should hope for further interest rate cuts
Hopes of a further fall in key interest rates in the United States were dampened last week despite a quarter of a percentage point move by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell signaled a pause in the rate cut, citing the need for clear signals from the jobs market and „somewhat elevated“ inflation. „Monetary policy is not set on a particular course, and we will make our decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis,“ he said.
US labor market data for October and November expected on Tuesday
The focus on Tuesday will be on the so-called „Non-Farm Payrolls“ for the months of October and November (2:30 pm).
The unemployment rate should also be taken into account. Due to the US government shutdown, the Fed has recently had to rely on job data from private institutions and its own estimates. The new US economic data could shed some light on the situation and may be weighed in the balance in this context.
On Tuesday afternoon (15:45), S&P Global purchasing managers for the manufacturing and services sectors will also be on the agenda.
Retail sales and inflation data for the United States could provide important impetus
US retail sales are expected on Wednesday (14:30).
Thursday is likely to be dominated by the publication of US inflation data (14:30). In addition to consumer prices, including the drivers energy and food, the so-called core rate is expected, which excludes the aforementioned values.
The key interest rate decision by the European Central Bank (ECB), which is scheduled for 14:15, could also attract interest. The subsequent press conference with Christine Lagarde is scheduled for 14:45. It remains to be seen whether the European colleagues will lower interest rates. The so-called deposit rate currently stands at 2.0 percent.
The final consumer sentiment data (Uni Michigan) will round off the trading week on Friday (16:00).
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