After a brilliant week of trading, the coming days should be somewhat more relaxed from the perspective of the economic data calendar. The swift outcome of the US presidential election has spared the stock markets a great deal of uncertainty regarding the future formation of a government. Following the latest Fed meeting, investors are likely to focus in particular on the development of US inflation.
Donald Trump wins US presidential election - hopes for economic stimulus measures
Republican Donald Trump will move into the White House in January. In this context, investors are hoping for the announced tax cuts for companies and new debt to further stimulate the economy. On the flip side, however, there are also inflation risks lurking in this context, which could dampen interest rate cut fantasies.
Just last Thursday, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered interest rates for the second time since the interest rate turnaround in September. As at the previous meeting, market participants are also expecting a quarter of a percentage point rate hike at the final meeting of the year on December 18.
Numerous Fed representatives have their say after Fed meeting - monetary policy stimulus conceivable
Investors expect monetary policy stimuli on Tuesday from scheduled speeches by Fed members Christopher Waller (4:00 p.m.), Thomas Barkin (4:15 p.m./Richmond), Neel Kashkari (8:00 p.m./Minneapolis) and Patrick Harker (11:00 p.m./Philadelphia).
More speeches are also on tap Wednesday with Lorie Logan (3:45 p.m./Dallas) and Jeffrey Schmid (7:30 p.m./Kansas) and Alberto Musalem (8:10 p.m./St. Louis).
Economists expect US inflation to rise - core inflation could tread water
New US inflation data could decide the weal and woe of the stock market week (14:30). Experts expect an October rate of 2.6 percent compared to the same month last year, after 2.4 percent in September. The development of US inflation could have a significant impact on the likelihood of future interest rate cuts.
The so-called core rate, which excludes energy and food and is regarded as decisive for the Fed in terms of decisions on future monetary policy, could remain unchanged at 3.3% over the same period.
On Thursday, the focus will also shift to new US producer prices (14:30), which could also provide important indications of future inflation trends. A speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be in the spotlight from 21:00. One week after the Fed meeting, investors are likely to be hoping for new signals of interest rate cuts.
China data in focus - second and third-tier companies present quarterly figures
In the night from Thursday to Friday, Chinese economic data will also come to the fore (03:00). In addition to new industrial data, it is important to keep an eye on retail trade data.
Last but not least, new data on the US retail sector is likely to be moving at 14:30.
It is also important not to lose sight of the current reporting season, even if only companies from the second and third tiers continue to present their figures.
Marathon Digital (AMC) will report on Tuesday. On Thursday, the focus will be on figures from Walt Disney and Applied Materials.
The quarterly figures of AI giant NVIDIA are eagerly awaited for November 20.
