In the first full trading week of 2026, it is important to keep an eye on developments in the conflict between the US and Venezuela as well as the official US labor market report at the end of the week. Many traders are now likely to return after the holidays. In this context, trading on Wall Street could really pick up again.
USA attacks Venezuela and takes head of state into custody
The USA attacked Venezuela on Friday night and captured the head of state Nicolás Maduro. „We will now take care of the country until we can ensure a safe, orderly and prudent transition,“ Trump said at a press conference on Saturday afternoon. He also announced that US oil companies would be active in Venezuela to „start making money for the country“.
The US accuses Maduro of not having been legally elected. Washington has not recognized Maduro as president since 2024. Venezuela itself has the largest oil reserves in the world.
Purchasing managers and Fed representatives could provide additional impetus
From an economic calendar perspective, investors should keep an eye on the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector this afternoon (16:00).
Following the Fed meeting in mid-December, various representatives of the monetary authority will also be making statements this week. Thomas Barkin (Richmond Fed) is expected on Tuesday (14:00) and Friday (19:35) and Governor Michelle Bowman on Wednesday (19:10).
ADP employment data and „JOLTs“ could provide first foretaste of US jobs report
The ADP employment data could provide a first foretaste of the non-farm payrolls in the middle of the week.
The purchasing managers„ counterpart for the service sector is expected in the late afternoon at 16:00. At the same time, the so-called “JOLTs" (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) could also move and provide important information about the labour market.
Non-farm payrolls: Unemployment rate could fall to 4.5 percent
The US jobs data, which is due to be published on Friday at 14:30, could consequently decide the weal and woe of the stock market week. The unemployment rate and the development of average hourly wages will also be important to watch.
Non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 55,000 units after 64,000 new jobs were created in November. The unemployment rate, which is calculated separately, could be 4.5%, 0.1 percentage points lower than in the previous month.
Preliminary data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan rounds off the trading week (16:00).
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
