In addition to the publication of new US price data, official US labor market data (non-farm payrolls) are likely to attract particular attention in the coming trading week. Investors should also pay attention to developments in the trade dispute. The reporting season is also likely to pick up speed and possibly act as an important driver.
Hopes for easing in the trade dispute between the USA and China - uncertainty could remain
Investors are likely to continue to hope for further signs of easing in the smouldering trade dispute. Shortly before last weekend, Trump was reported to be in talks with the People's Republic of China about a tariff agreement, but China denied this. "China and the U.S. are NOT in consultations or negotiations on # tariffs," said a statement from the Foreign Ministry. "The US should stop creating confusion."
In the coming trading days, the tariff dispute could cause repeated movement. It remains unclear whether there will actually be an easing of tensions between the world's two largest economies in terms of tariffs.
Focus on China data and US price data on Wednesday
In the middle of the week, there are numerous potential sources of momentum on the daily agenda.
For the Middle Kingdom, the NBS Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing sector could provide important guidance for Wednesday's trading (03:30)
The ADP data (14:15) should provide a first foretaste of the US jobs data that will be published on Friday.
The so-called "PCE core deflator" for personal consumption expenditure will be published at 14:30 and could potentially send important inflation signals.
The gross domestic product (annualized) for the United States is also expected at the same time.
ISM data and non-farm payrolls round off the trading week - reporting season with Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple in focus
On Thursday, the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing sector (16:00) in the USA could provide important impetus.
Friday is likely to be dominated by the publication of the "NFPs". The US labor market data (non-farm payrolls) is expected on Friday afternoon (14:30). The unemployment rate and the development of average hourly wages will also be in focus.
According to current estimates, economists expect an increase in jobs of 130,000 units, after a total of 228,000 new non-farm jobs were created in the previous month. The unemployment rate is likely to remain at 4.2%, unchanged from the previous month.
Coca-Cola and Visa will report on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the focus will shift to the figures from Meta and Microsoft. On Thursday, the focus is likely to be on the business figures for the past quarter from Amazon, Apple and Coinbase, for example.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Source: TradingView
