Following the recent interest rate cut in the US, investors are likely to focus in particular on the publication of new US price data in the new trading week. Numerous speeches by various Fed representatives will also need to be scrutinized for monetary policy clues.
After-effects of interest rate cuts in the USA likely to keep investors busy
The after-effects of the recent interest rate turnaround in the United States could continue to have an impact in the new trading week and beyond. Last Wednesday, for the first time since March 2020, the US monetary authority lowered interest rates again and adjusted the interest rate band by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%. At the same time, the monetary watchdog raised the prospect of a further reduction of 50 basis points over the course of the year.
Purchasing managers and monetary policy stimuli expected from Fed representatives
At the start of the week, the focus will initially be on new US purchasing managers (15:45). The PMI services index is expected to come in at 55.2 points, compared to 55.7 points in the previous month. The counterpart for the manufacturing sector could come in at 48.5 points, slightly above the previous month's value (47.9 points), but still below the expansion threshold of 50 points.
Speeches by Raphael Bostic from the Atlanta Fed (14:00), Goolsbee (Chicago/16:15) and Kashkari (Minneapolis/19:00) will also be in the spotlight in the afternoon.
Consumer confidence from the Conference Board should provide impetus on Tuesday at 16:00.
Consumer spending, economic and jobs data and Fed members in focus on Thursday
From the perspective of the economic data calendar, things could only get exciting again on Thursday with the publication of core personal consumption expenditures (14:30). At the same time, the US gross domestic product price index, new orders for durable goods and weekly initial claims for US unemployment benefits are also on the agenda.
Momentum from John Willams (New York/15:25), Michael Barr (Vice President of Oversight/16:30) and Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis/19:00) could also be moving.
The so-called PCE deflator for personal consumption expenditure is likely to be of great importance on Friday at 14:30, which is generally regarded as a guide to future inflation trends. Economists expect an increase of 0.2 percent compared to the previous month, after 0.2 percent in July.
US consumer prices themselves recently stood at 2.5% in August (year-on-year comparison).
Consumer confidence (Reuters/Uni Michigan) rounds off the trading week at 16:00.
