Investors continue to swing between geopolitical risks, monetary policy questions and fragile technological fantasies. Investors fear that the central bankers’ guiding principles—both across the Atlantic and within it—are setting the tone.
Instead of a smooth record-breaking hunt, autumn blues characterized by uncertainty continues to dominate stock market activity.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Focusing on economic data – Fed interest rate meeting could decide the fate of the stock market week
On Tuesday, the focus will initially be on incoming orders for durable goods (13:30).
Wednesday is likely to be dominated by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting. Due to the time change here in Germany, the decision on the key interest rate will be announced at 19:00, and a half hour later the FOMC press conference with Kevin Warsh will take place. Investors are usually expected to look for clues regarding monetary policy from these speeches.
„Fed Watch Tool“ signals high chance of a pause in interest rates – Increased probability of interest rate hike at December meeting
According to the CME Group’s „Fed Watch Tool,“ 90.6 percent of market participants expect a pause in interest rates and 9.4 percent an increase in interest rates, totaling a quarter of a percentage point. The interest rate band itself currently stands at 3.75 to 4.00 percent.
However, the outlook for the December meeting (09.12.2026) is significantly different. In this case, 74 percent of investors expect an appropriate interest rate increase of 25 basis points.
US price data to be watched on Thursday – ECB to decide on key interest rate
On Thursday, at 13:30 already, a whole host of potential donors are on the agenda.
The core rate for personal consumption expenditure and the GDP growth rate for the past quarter are expected.
It will also be of interest to see how the colleagues of the European Central Bank decide on the future level of the key interest rate on Thursday (14:15). The press conference with President Christine Lagarde is expected to attract attention at 14:45.
US reporting season continues
On Tuesday, the figures for the latest financial quarter from Boeing (ISIN: US0970231058), Coca-Cola (ISIN: US1912161007), Paypal (ISIN: US70450Y1038) and Visa (ISIN: US92826C8394) will come to the fore.
On Wednesday, Alphabet C (ISIN: US02079K1079), Ford Motor (ISIN: US3a453708600) and Microsoft (ISIN: US5949181045) will report.
On Thursday, the list of companies continues with Coinbase (ISIN: US19260Q1076) and MicroStrategy (ISIN: US5949724083).
