The new trading week is likely to be dominated by the official US labor market data. At the same time, in addition to the earnings season gaining momentum across the Atlantic, the Iran conflict could still provide impetus. Hopes for diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran could boost risk appetite.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Investors hope for new talks between the US and Iran
U.S. President Donald Trump had stated on Monday that the U.S. and Iran would resume new talks today. „What we're doing is, we're talking with them in terms of negotiations,“ the U.S. President said on Sunday. It remains to be seen whether there will be a sustained de-escalation in the Iran conflict. In recent weeks, renewed military escalations have repeatedly followed supposed signals of de-escalation.
The economic data calendar on Tuesday features potential catalysts with the so-called „JOLTs“ (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey), which are expected at 4:00 PM.
ISM Purchasing Managers, Fed Officials, and NFPs as Potential Movers
On Wednesday, the ISM Services PMI will be in focus.
The ADP employment data (2:15 PM) could also provide an early preview of the US jobs data in the afternoon.
Speeches by various Fed representatives, who will be commenting after last Wednesday's US Federal Reserve meeting, may also be of interest. A speech by Lisa Cook is expected in the evening (10:05 PM/Chicago).
Thursday typically features the weekly initial jobless claims for the US (2:30 PM).
Alberto Musalem (Thursday/11:30 PM) from the central bank branch in St. Louis, as well as Thomas Barkin on Friday (4:00 PM/Richmond), could also provide monetary policy impulses.
On Friday, the focus will be on scrutinizing the official US jobs data for monetary policy clues (2:30 PM). Economists expect job growth of 83,000 positions, following the creation of 57,000 new nonfarm payroll jobs in June.
In addition to the separately determined unemployment rate, average hourly wages are in focus, which could provide inflation clues. For the former, an increase of 0.1 percentage points to 4.3 percent is expected.
US earnings season continues to pick up pace – Numerous second and third-tier companies report earnings
In the ongoing earnings season, the focus on Tuesday will be on the past business quarter results from McDonald's (ISIN: US5801351017) and Merck & Co (ISIN: US58933Y1055), followed by Walt Disney (ISIN: US2546871060), Etsy (ISIN: US29786A1060), and Eli Lilly (ISIN: US5324571083) & Co on Wednesday, and Airbnb (ISIN: US0090661010) on Thursday, and Berkshire Hathaway (Class B) (ISIN: US0846707026) on Friday.
