The Iran conflict is likely to remain the dominant theme in the market even after Easter. The Strait of Hormuz, which is effectively being blocked by Iran, is once again in focus. Investors are still hoping for a prompt ceasefire or peace talks, and thus for the opening of the strategic strait connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman.
From the economic calendar perspective, US inflation figures are on the agenda, in addition to the publication of the Fed minutes.
Trump reiterates threats against power plants and bridges in Iran
US President Donald Trump has reiterated his threats of attacks against Iranian power plants and bridges.
„If they don't do something by Tuesday night, there won't be a power plant or a bridge left standing,“ Trump told The Wall Street Journal.
The deadline therefore expires on Tuesday evening (8:00 PM US Eastern Time) / Wednesday 2:00 AM CEST.
Speculation also circulated at the beginning of the week regarding a possible ceasefire between the involved conflict parties. According to reports, Pakistan presented a plan for a truce to the US and Iran. The proposal reportedly involves a 45-day cessation of hostilities to be used for peace negotiations.
US Economic Data in Focus: Fed Minutes Could Offer Monetary Policy Clues
On Tuesday, the focus will be on US durable goods orders (2:30 PM).
On Wednesday evening, the so-called „FOMC minutes" will be released (8:00 PM), which investors should examine for monetary policy clues.
At their meeting at the end of March 2026, the US Federal Reserve, as expected, kept the key interest rate unchanged in a range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent. However, it remains unclear how the Fed will react to the impact of the Iran conflict on the global economy. The associated rise in oil prices could fuel new inflation concerns and possibly even force the US monetary authorities to raise interest rates.
Investors may have to say goodbye to the hope of timely interest rate cuts for now.
Inflation figures on Thursday and Friday in focus – Monetary policy hints possible
On Thursday, investors should keep an eye on new figures for the development of the core personal consumption expenditures rate (2:30 p.m.), which are likely to send initial inflation signals.
At the same time, the GDP growth rate for the United States will also be published.
US inflation data will be in focus on Friday (2:30 PM). In addition to the Consumer Price Index, core inflation (excluding energy and food drivers) is also expected.
The trading week concludes with the Consumer Sentiment Index (Uni Michigan) at 4:00 PM.
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