The last few trading days were characterized in particular by the publication of new US inflation data and the ECB's Fed meeting. At the same time, investors in Germany were confronted with the political developments in France. In addition, the Fed's decision on key interest rates planned for next Wednesday could already be casting its shadow.
DAX
Source: TradingView
Political uncertainties in France only move investors for a short time - uncertainty likely to remain simmering
Following the fall of the government in France at the beginning of the week, political uncertainty has receded for the time being. Emmanuel Macron inaugurated the new Prime Minister Lecornu, who succeeds Bayrou. The latter had announced his resignation after losing a vote of confidence. Nevertheless, investors should be prepared for the possibility of further uncertainties.
ECB leaves deposit rate at 2.0 percent - Lagarde with little impetus
As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) left the so-called deposit rate and thus the key interest rate in the eurozone unchanged at 2.0% on Thursday.
Lagarde also said: „We are not committing to a specific interest rate path in advance.“ The ECB President wants to stabilize inflation at a target value of 2.0 percent in the medium term. „We will take a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance,“ she continued.
US inflation picks up as expected - core inflation remains at 3.1 percent
According to the Washington-based Department of Labor, consumer prices, including the drivers energy and food, rose by 2.9% (compared to the same month last year), which is as high as economists had expected in advance, after 2.7% in July. The so-called core inflation rate, which excludes energy and food, was also as expected at 3.1%.
However, at 0.4%, consumer prices rose more sharply than expected (0.3%) compared to the previous month.
US Federal Reserve meeting could soon cast its shadow - German inflation picks up
The Fed meeting, which is scheduled for next Wednesday (17.09.2025), could already cast its shadow ahead.
It remains to be seen whether there will be an interest rate hike of half a percentage point. According to the CME Group's „Fed Watch Tool“, the probability of this is currently 7.5% and 92.5% for a 25 basis point rate hike.
According to preliminary figures, the German inflation rate rose for the first time this year in August due to higher prices for fruit and other foodstuffs. Goods and services rose by an average of 2.2% compared to the same month last year.
Finally, from the perspective of the economic calendar, preliminary consumer confidence data (University of Michigan) is on the agenda today (16:00).
Oracle shares rise temporarily by 36 percent
Oracle's (ISIN: US68389X1054) figures also caused a stir. An optimistic outlook following a newspaper report regarding a contract worth 300 billion dollars from OpenAI caused shares to rise by 36% on Wednesday, the second-largest daily gain in the company's history.
Oracle
Source: TradingView
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Source: TradingView
