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US weekly outlook: Trade deal, Fed meeting and NFPs likely to move

Investors are likely to focus in particular on the Fed meeting and the publication of new US labor market data in the new trading week.
An agreement reached on Sunday in the trade dispute between the US and the EU could provide some relief. Last but not least, the reporting season should continue to attract attention.

Sigh of relief in the trade dispute between the USA and the EU - agreement on tariffs of 15 percent for goods from Europe

Following their meeting in Scotland, US President Donald Trump and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have announced that they have agreed on a flat tariff rate of 15% for imports from the EU to the US. This rate will also apply to the automotive industry, which currently stands at 25 percent. Tariffs on aluminum and steel imports, however, will remain at 50 percent, according to the US President. According to Trump, the European Union will also invest several hundred billion dollars in the United States.

"JOLTs" and ADP data in view - all eyes on Jerome Powell

The so-called "JOLTs" are expected on Tuesday (16:00), which could provide important impetus for the official US labor market report on Friday.

Usually, the ADP employment data (14:15) should also give a first taste of the US jobs data on Wednesday.

In the middle of the week, market players will focus on the US gross domestic product growth rate in the afternoon (14:30).

However, the eagerly awaited Fed meeting in the evening is likely to decide the weal and woe. The key interest rate decision is expected at 20:00, the FOMC press conference at 20:30.

Focus on China data - US price data could send inflation signals

The night from Wednesday to Thursday could be exciting with important Chinese economic data, which should consequently provide important guidance for trading. The Caixin Purchasing Managers' Index for the non-manufacturing and service sectors should also attract interest (03:30)

The core rate for personal consumption expenditure is on the agenda on Thursday afternoon (14:30). Investors are likely to expect important inflation signals in this context.

US labor market data could decide the weal and woe on Friday - reporting season continues to pick up speed

Friday is likely to be dominated by the publication of the "Non-Farm Payrolls", which are expected at 14:30. In addition to the employment figures and the unemployment rate, it is important to keep an eye on the development of average hourly wages.

The reporting season, which continues to gather pace, is also likely to be a tough one. On Tuesday, for example, Boeing (ISIN: US0970231058) and PayPal (ISIN: US70450Y1038) are expected to report their figures for the past financial quarter. Meta (ISIN: US30303M1027) and Microsoft (ISIN: US5949181045) will report on Wednesday and Amazon (ISIN: ISINUS0231351067), Coinbase (ISIN: US19260Q1076) and MicroStrategy (ISIN: ISINUS5949724083) on Thursday

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

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Source: TradingView

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Timo Emden

Timo Emden holds a B.A. in Business Administration, is a market analyst and a certified blockchain expert from the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management. He has been following the global financial markets for over 14 years, with a focus on crypto assets. His assessments are based on chart technology and sentiment - he nevertheless considers important fundamental events to be significant. As a market expert, Mr. Emden is a valued contact for TV, press and radio.

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