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Week in review DAX 40 and Wall Street: US election makes investors nervous - mixed reporting season

The current trading week has been characterized in particular by the ongoing reporting season on both sides of the Atlantic as well as the ever-closer US presidential election, which is increasingly casting its shadow. In view of the uncertainty surrounding the future formation of a government, investors may avoid major investments. Meanwhile, economic data on both sides of the Atlantic fueled fantasies of further falls in capital market interest rates.

DAX Chart

Source: Tradingview

China interest rate cut leaves markets cold - German producer prices weaker than expected

On Monday, investors initially reacted cautiously to an interest rate cut by the People's Bank of China. The one-year key interest rate was lowered by a quarter of a point to 3.10 percent in order to boost the domestic economy. However, market participants are still waiting for details on the economic stimulus measures announced in recent weeks.

In Germany, producer prices were weaker than expected (-0.20 percent) at minus 0.50 percent, which eased inflationary pressure and raised hopes of further ECB interest rate cuts.

Christine Lagarde is optimistic about achieving the two percent target

ECB President Christine Lagarde said at a Bloomberg conference on Tuesday that she was optimistic about achieving the price target in the coming year. In September, inflation in the eurozone was 1.7 percent, below the ECB's target of 2.0 percent. Investors are hoping that the European central bank will turn the interest rate screws down again by a quarter of a percentage point at the last central bank meeting of the year in mid-December.

US economy treading water according to the Fed - purchasing managers mostly positive

The "Beige Book" released late Wednesday night revealed that the economy was treading water, according to the Fed. "By and large, economic activity in nearly all districts has changed little since early September, although two districts reported modest growth," it said.

In this country, the purchasing managers all performed better than expected. At 42.60 points, the purchasing managers' index was above estimates (40.50 points). At 51.40 points, the services sector was also above expectations (50.50 points) and therefore still above the growth threshold of 50 points.

In the eurozone, the manufacturing sector also performed better than expected. On the other hand, the service sector suffered. In the USA, the picture was also better than expected.

The number of weekly initial claims for US unemployment benefits stood at 227,000 last week, after 242,000 expected units and an upwardly revised 242,000 claims in the previous week. Experts consider the 270,000 mark to be critical, as it would herald a negative turnaround on the labor market.

Ifo index surprisingly strong - "German economy can halt decline for now"

This Friday, figures on Germany's most important economic barometer, the ifo Business Climate Index, caused quite a stir. At 86.5 points, it was above expectations (85.6 points) and well above the previous month's figure (85.4 points). "The German economy was able to halt the downward slide for the time being," said the institute.

Incoming orders for durable goods in the USA (14:30) and consumer confidence (Reuters/Uni Michigan) round off the trading week at 16:00.

SAP figures strong - carmakers cause emotional rollercoaster

From the perspective of the reporting season, investors also had a lot of data to digest this week.

SAP's figures on Monday evening stood out thanks to strong growth in the cloud business. AI offerings would play a central role in this, it said.

In the USA, the figures from Tesla were in the spotlight. Thanks to lower battery costs, the US electric car manufacturer was able to achieve a profit margin of almost 20 percent in the third quarter.

On the other hand, this Friday's figures from Mercedes-Benz, which presented a slump in profits, are likely to dampen the mood. Operating profit slumped by 64 percent in the period from July to September due to weak demand in China. The sales outlook for the fourth quarter was also disappointing.

Timo Emden in a dark suit and tie poses in front of a plain gray background and looks neutrally into the camera.
Timo Emden

Timo Emden holds a B.A. in Business Administration, is a market analyst and a certified blockchain expert from the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management. He has been following the global financial markets for over 14 years, with a focus on crypto assets. His assessments are based on chart technology and sentiment - he nevertheless considers important fundamental events to be significant. As a market expert, Mr. Emden is a valued contact for TV, press and radio.

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