The Iran conflict, which remains unresolved, was once again the focus of the past trading days. Despite temporary glimmers of hope for a peace agreement, an end to the Middle East conflict is still not in sight.
Middle East conflict remains in focus: Investors hope for continuation of possible peace talks
The Middle East conflict could continue to increasingly concern investors. As in previous weeks, market participants should prepare for possible developments. Just last weekend, talks about a possible peace agreement between Iran and the US in Pakistan remained inconclusive.
US President Donald Trump told reporters in Washington on Thursday, „There is a very good chance we will make a deal.“ However, he did not provide further details.
Additionally, Trump stated that Iran has agreed to hand over its stockpiles of enriched uranium. The ten-day ceasefire between Iran and the US expires as early as next Wednesday.
Investors are betting that the ceasefire between the US and Iran will hold at least for the time being, or even develop into an extended phase of political détente in the course of events, which could lead to a viable peace agreement in the medium term.
Market participants are thus potentially acting under the assumption that a further escalation will be avoided in the short term. This expectation supports the risk appetite of many investors, who are currently tending to ignore geopolitical risks rather than re-pricing them. The market is currently pricing in a scenario of de-escalation, but is unlikely to be immune to a sudden reassessment.
US producer prices rise less sharply than expected – Chinese economic data mostly better than expected
US producer prices rose 0.5 percent month-over-month, significantly less than economists had forecast (1.1 percent), following a 0.5 percent increase in the previous period.
In the Middle Kingdom, the GDP growth rate increased by 5 percent compared to the same month last year, which was stronger than expected (4.8 percent), following 4.5 percent in the previous period.
Even the March industrial production (compared to the previous year's month) exceeded expectations of 5.5 percent with 5.7 percent (previously: 6.3 percent).
However, retail sales rose less strongly than expected at 1.7 percent (2.3 percent), after 2.8 percent in March 2025.
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