The past trading week was characterized in particular by the government shutdown in the US and the associated uncertainties. Investors also had to repeatedly process various pieces of economic data. It remains to be seen whether the US labor market data actually scheduled for publication this afternoon will be released.
DAX
Source: TradingView
Uncertainty due to partial US government shutdown - publication of economic data likely to be delayed
The partial US government shutdown, which came into effect on Wednesday morning, continues to cause uncertainty on the stock markets.
The fronts between Democrats and Republicans still appear to be hardened. Non-systemically important authorities have therefore stopped their work. It remains uncertain whether significant economic data will be published this Friday or next week. In this context, the question marks over future interest rate cuts in the US could remain.
German inflation was at its highest level this year in September
At 2.4% (compared to the previous month), the inflation rate in Germany in September was at its highest level this year and therefore higher than previously expected (2.20%), after 2.10% in August.
"JOLTs" signal higher job offers than expected - ADP data with job cuts
The so-called "JOLTs" (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) came in at 7.227 million units on Tuesday, slightly better than previously estimated (7.200 million), after 7.208 jobs in August. This data refers to the vacancies of all positions that are not filled on the last working day of the month.
ADP employment data at midweek showed that job growth in the US private sector fell by 32,000. A total increase in jobs of 50,000 units was expected in advance, following 54,000 units in the previous month.
ISM Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing sector brightens
The ISM Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing sector brightened somewhat in September at 49.10 points (expectation: 49 points). However, the sector still remains below the growth threshold of 50 units.
Publication of US labor market data likely to be delayed
The so-called "non-farm payrolls" are actually expected this afternoon at 2:30 p.m., but according to the news agency Reuters, these are likely to be delayed indefinitely.
Economists had expected a total of 50,000 new jobs outside the agricultural sector in September, significantly more than in the previous month (22,000). The unemployment rate is estimated at 4.3 percent.
Austan Goolsbee, head of the central bank's Chicago branch, signaled on Thursday that the Fed would have to look for alternative data sources if the government shutdown prevented publication.
Furthermore, the CME Group's "Fed Watch Tool" estimates that there is a 97.8% chance that interest rates will be cut by a quarter of a percentage point at the scheduled meeting on October 29. The interest rate band itself currently stands at 4.00 to 4.25 percent.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Source: TradingView
