The past trading week was characterized by hopes of a timely ceasefire in the Ukraine war, speculation about US interest rate cuts and the ongoing reporting season. At the end of the week, another speech by a Fed representative awaits in a generally manageable economic calendar. Market participants may already be eagerly awaiting the publication of fresh US inflation data next week.
DAX
Source: TradingView
Investors hope for peace talks between Putin and Trump in the Ukraine conflict
The news that a meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump is to take place was one of the main reasons for the positive mood. Possible peace talks could boost the risk appetite of market players.
Federal Reserve fuels prospect of possible interest rate cuts in the USA
In addition, a number of central bank representatives expressed their hopes for interest rate cuts in the current year.
Mary Daly, head of the central bank's San Francisco branch, said that the Federal Reserve may have to adjust its monetary policy in the coming months. "I think a further slowdown is unwelcome, especially since we know that once the labor market falters, it usually collapses quickly and violently," said Daly.
Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Fed told CNBC this week: "The economy is slowing, and that means it may be appropriate to start making adjustments in the near future."
German exports pick up despite US tariff dispute - Initial claims for US unemployment benefits rise
Despite the customs dispute, German exports rose by 0.8 percent compared to the previous month to 130.5 billion euros, according to the Federal Statistical Office. The decline in exports to the USA was offset by demand from the EU and China, it said.
Initial claims for US unemployment benefits stood at 226,000 units last week, according to the Department of Labor. The threshold of 270,000 units is seen as critical, which would initiate a negative trend reversal on the job market.
This Friday, a speech by Fed member Alberto Musalem (4:20 pm) could also be moving.
US inflation data, which is expected on Tuesday, could also cast a shadow. The prospect of falling capital market interest rates in the US could possibly boost risk appetite.
Bayer struggles with exchange rate effects
In the reporting season, mixed figures from Bayer (ISIN: DE000BAY0017), for example, provided a boost. The agrochemical and pharmaceutical company sees further risks from exchange rate developments. Reference was also made to the US legal disputes.
"We have adjusted our exchange rate expectations based on the exchange rates in June. Due to the further devaluation of the US dollar and weaker currencies in Brazil and China, we expect significant headwinds for sales and earnings this year," said CFO Wolfgang Nickl on Wednesday.
Bayer
Source: TradingView
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Source: TradingView
