Dear traders, dear stock market friends.
The DAX came under renewed pressure in the past trading week and closed the week at 22,380 points, well below the important long-term support zone of around 23,000 points. After an initially decent start to the week, sentiment changed significantly as the week progressed and a potential stabilization turned into a sell-off. The main negative factor continued to be the escalation in the Middle East and the associated high energy prices, which at the same time caused concerns about a new wave of inflation to return.
Bearish bounce off the daily EMA 200
After a friendly start to the week, the DAX initially tackled the daily EMA 200 at 23,880 points last week. However, the index rebounded bearishly here and subsequently came under heavy pressure.
Long-term support broken
Even more important than the bounce off the EMA-200 was the break of the support zone at 23,000 - 23,300 points. This area was very important from a technical point of view, as buying interest has repeatedly emerged here since the middle of last year and the market has tried several times to form a bottom. It is precisely this zone that has now been broken down. The DAX has thus not only broken a short-term support level, but also sent a signal that the sellers are currently in control.
As can be seen on the weekly chart, the weekly EMA 50 and the lower Bollinger band were breached at the same time. The next technical support levels are located in the area of the upward long-term trend line and the horizontal support at around 20,300 - 20,500 points, and below this at around 19,000 points.
Macro factors in focus: Middle East, oil price and central banks
The downward trend on the German stock market was again triggered by the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East. Attacks on energy infrastructure, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz region and concerns about a further escalation of the conflict have significantly increased pressure on the energy markets. This is particularly sensitive for Europe, as rising energy prices can have a direct impact on inflation, margins, consumption and economic expectations. 
Rising energy prices fuel inflation fears
Rapidly rising oil prices are generally unpleasant for stock markets, especially for the DAX. The leading German index contains many companies that react sensitively to input costs, economic expectations and global demand. If oil and other energy sources rise sharply, this leads to rising production costs on the one hand, while on the other hand consumers' purchasing power falls and concerns about a renewed wave of inflation increase.
ZEW slump and dwindling confidence in the economic recovery
Another negative factor was the deterioration in sentiment for the German economy. The significant slump in the ZEW index reported last Tuesday was a clear warning signal. It shows that hopes of a gradual economic recovery have been severely damaged by the new geopolitical situation and the renewed increase in price risks.
Fed and ECB: No more interest rate cut fantasy for the market
While the focus in recent months has been on the question of whether and when the next easing of monetary policy will follow, this glimmer of hope has now also been lost with the rise in oil prices and inflation concerns.
The question no longer seems to be when the next interest rate cuts might come, but rather whether the central banks will have to remain restrictive for longer and, in extreme cases, even have to consider raising interest rates again. 
This is precisely what is poison for share indices such as the DAX. Higher or prolonged high interest rates weigh on valuations, make bonds more attractive and increase uncertainty for companies and investors.
Do the bulls still have a chance?
However, the bulls should not be written off completely despite the battered chart picture. However, the basic prerequisite for a potentially bullish scenario would be a genuine de-escalation in the Middle East and an associated easing of inflation and interest rate concerns. As long as this is not in sight and the oil market remains nervous, it will be difficult for the DAX to reverse its trend.
The only real hope for the bulls at the moment is to hope that Donald Trump might try to row back significantly with a view to the mid-term elections in the fall, as otherwise a Republican election victory seems very unlikely.
However, betting on this is not yet a resilient scenario, but rather a possible trigger for a later recovery. This signal is still missing. As long as it does not come, any rebound remains vulnerable.
For a clearly bullish scenario, the DAX would first have to recapture the broken zone between 23,000 and 23,500 points. Only above this range would the chart picture relax somewhat and the market would have the chance to make the recent downward breakout appear to be a false signal. As long as the index trades below this price range, the path of least resistance is downwards.
However, should the DAX fall even lower in the course of a further escalation, much more interesting valuation zones would emerge again from a long-term perspective. The areas around 20,300 points or even 19,000 points shown in the weekly chart above would again be exciting potential buy zones for long-term investors.  
Author Tobias Schmid
Date: 23.03.2026
