Your Broker for worldwide trading

DAX forecast and analysis: Waiting for US elections

A share chart shows price movements with support and resistance levels, moving averages and the RSI indicator. Patterns such as heads and shoulders are visible, trend lines are clearly marked. An automatically saved draft of these elements improves understanding at a glance.

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.

After the DAX reached a new all-time high in mid-October with a rise to 19,675 points, a moderate correction followed in the last two trading weeks. The overarching upward trend is intact and setbacks in such a market environment are generally a good opportunity to look for new trades in the direction of the primary upward trend. However, the US presidential election will take place this week on Tuesday, November 5, and this event is also likely to have an impact on the European equity markets. Both a direct continuation of the upward trend and an extension of the correction seem possible. Instead of speculating on how the stock markets will react to the outcome of the election, it makes more sense to consider all possible scenarios and develop a plan for each one.

Short-term support at 19,000 points

On the following daily chart, you can see from the turning points marked in yellow that the DAX has formed a new upward trend starting from 17,200 points after the short-lived price slump in August, i.e. a sequence of rising highs and rising lows. However, this upward trend is "only" a secondary or subordinate upward trend. This means that this secondary uptrend represents the movement phase of the primary (long-term) uptrend. Even a break in the secondary trend would not end the primary uptrend, but would merely be a signal of a correction in the primary trend.

DAX Index daily chart

DAX Index daily chart

The momentum weakened a little at the end of October. You can recognize this from two observations:

  1. While the DAX always broke out above the upper Bollinger band during previous upward movements, the last rally attempt failed a few points below the upper Bollinger band.
  2. At the same time, the RSI (you can see it below the chart) signaled a weakening momentum. The RSI generated a lower high and thus a bearish divergence.

The correction led the index directly to the 19,000-point mark. This is currently an important support area formed by a combination of different factors:

  • The horizontal support provided by the last local high and low points.
  • The lower Bollinger band
  • The daily EMA 50
  • The psychologically important and round price mark (19,000 points)

However, a few points below this support area there are further technical support levels at the local highs from May and July at 18,880 points and 18,750 points. The daily EMA 200 and the upward trend line then await in the 18,400 - 18,500 point range.

Long-term chart (weekly chart)

On the weekly chart below you can see that the support area at around 18,800 - 19,000 points can also be seen as a single broad support zone. The weekly EMA 20 further reinforces this area. In the event of a breakout below the support area, the weekly chart would signal a little more scope for a continuation of the correction.

DAX Index weekly chart

DAX Index weekly chart

Short-term downward trend

As there is a high probability that the markets will see a little more movement this week, a wait-and-see approach does not seem to be a bad strategy for the time being. As soon as the initial reaction to the election result has taken place, it is also worth taking a look at a smaller time unit and a smaller trend size to determine whether the DAX will continue the correction or turn upwards again. The hourly chart, for example, is suitable for this purpose.

On the following hourly chart of the DAX future you can see a clear downward trend. There is a sequence of falling highs and falling lows. In addition, the moving averages signal a downward trend.

FDAX hourly chart

FDAX hourly chart

As soon as this subordinate trend variable (the tertiary trend) indicates or completes a trend reversal, there is an opportunity to become active again with long trades. If, on the other hand, you want to trade this downtrend, you could take a bearish position within the trend out of a correction.

Author Tobias Schmid
Date: 04.11.2024

A man with slicked-back hair and a trimmed beard, wearing a navy blue suit jacket and a white shirt, looks into the camera with a slight smile. Industrial background.
Tobias Schmid

Tobias Schmid has been a trader and analyst since 2008 and specializes in trading futures options and equity options. His strategies and analysis methods are based on a combination of technical analysis, intermarket analysis and sentiment analysis. Tobias Schmid is also the founder of Fomo Financea financial website for active traders, investors and options traders.

Mandatory information and disclaimer

This is a marketing communication within the meaning of Section 63 (6) of the German Securities Trading Act and does not contain investment strategy recommendations, investment recommendations or financial analyses in accordance with Section 85 of the German Securities Trading Act and Article 20 of the Market Abuse Regulation. It therefore does not fulfill the legal requirements to guarantee the objectivity of investment strategy recommendations/investment recommendations/financial analyses. CapTrader GmbH or its employees are therefore not legally prohibited from trading or providing services in the securities products mentioned therein prior to publication of the information.

Past performance, simulations or forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Mandatory information and limitation of liability for CapTrader and any third-party content providers can be found at https://www.captrader.com/marketingmitteilung/angaben
Please note that investing in financial instruments involves high risks and take note of our disclaimer and the mandatory legal information at the locations indicated.

  1. Mandatory information

Responsible: CapTrader GmbH, Elberfelder Straße 2, 40213 Düsseldorf; Commercial Register Number: HRB 86537 Düsseldorf Local Court; VAT ID DE323771603; Managing Directors Andreas Weiß, Christian Weiß, Michael Heyder; Tel: +49 211-740786-00, Fax: +49 211-740786-90.

Zuständige Aufsichtsbehörde: Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, Graurheindorfer Straße 108, D – 53117 Bonn und Marie-Curie-Str. 24-28 D – 60439 Frankfurt am Main, Tel: 0228 4108 – 0 Fax: 0228 4108 1550 E-Mail: poststelle@bafin.de; Institutsnummer 10156708

Conflicts of interest CapTrader in marketing communications: CapTrader GmbH confirms that it does not hold any positions in the mentioned financial instruments beyond the positions mentioned in the marketing communication itself, if applicable. There are also no other conflicts of interest within the meaning of CapTrader GmbH's Financial Analysis and Marketing Communication Policy.

Conflicts of interest and mandatory disclosures by the third-party content provider for marketing communications with financial instrument recommendations: See under https://www.captrader.com/marketingmitteilung/angaben  to creators of third-party content

The copyright to the marketing communication is reserved. Reprinting and distribution is only permitted with our consent.

  1. Disclaimer

By accepting the content, the recipient accepts the binding nature of the limitation of liability.

a) Disclaimer for third-party content

CapTrader GmbH offers authors - such as editors, guest commentators, agencies and companies - the opportunity to publish comments, analyses, news and company announcements. Their opinions do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of CapTrader GmbH and its employees. CapTrader GmbH assumes neither liability nor guarantee for this content. This applies in particular to incomplete or incorrectly reproduced reports, incorrect price information and editorial errors. Liability claims relating to material or immaterial damage caused by the use or non-use of the published information or by the use of incorrect or incomplete information are fundamentally excluded.

b) Exclusion of liability for CapTrader's own content

CapTrader has taken its own information in this marketing communication from sources believed to be reliable, but has not verified all such information itself. Accordingly, CapTrader makes no warranties or representations as to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained herein. Subsequent changes cannot be taken into account. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy shares of the issuer and is in no way a substitute for advice appropriate to the investor and the property. We cannot verify whether the information in the marketing communication is in line with your personal investment strategies and objectives. We recommend that you consult an investment advisor for advice that is appropriate to the investor and the property. The marketing communication cannot and should not replace a securities prospectus and/or expert investment advice required for an investment. It can therefore never be the sole basis for an investment decision. By accepting the marketing communication, the recipient accepts the binding nature of the above limitation of liability.

CapTrader provides the information despite careful procurement and provision only without guarantee for the correctness / completeness, timeliness or accuracy and availability of the stock exchange and economic information, prices, rates, indices, general market data, valuations, assessments and other accessible content held and displayed for retrieval. This also applies to third-party content. Historical observations and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future developments. The facts presented in particular in connection with product information are for illustrative purposes only and do not permit any statements to be made about future profits or losses. Any conditions stated are to be understood as non-binding indications and are dependent on market developments on the day of conclusion.

CapTrader accepts no liability for any direct or indirect damage caused by and/or related to the distribution and/or use of this marketing communication.

The information, opinions and statements correspond to the status at the time of preparation of the marketing communication. They may be outdated due to future developments without the publication being changed.

CapTrader is not obliged to update, amend or supplement the information in this marketing communication if a circumstance mentioned in this publication or a statement, estimate or forecast contained therein changes or becomes inaccurate. The presentation of the performance of financial instruments over previous periods does not provide a reliable indication of their future performance. No guarantee can therefore be given for the future price, value or income of any financial instrument mentioned in this publication.

Despite careful control of the content, we assume no liability for the content of external links. The operators of the linked pages are solely responsible for their content.

Distribution: This publication may only be distributed in accordance with the laws of the respective countries, and persons in possession of this publication should inform themselves about the applicable local regulations. The information contained herein is not intended for natural or legal persons who, due to their place of residence or business, are subject to a foreign legal system that imposes restrictions on the distribution of such information. The contents are therefore exclusively in German. In particular, this publication contains neither an offer nor an invitation to purchase securities to citizens of the USA, Great Britain and Australia.

Taxes: The tax treatment of financial instruments depends on the personal circumstances of the respective investor and may be subject to future changes, which may also have a retroactive effect.

Historical observations and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future developments. The facts presented in particular in connection with product information are for illustrative purposes only and do not permit any statements to be made about future profits or losses. Any conditions stated are to be understood as non-binding indications and are dependent on market developments on the day of conclusion.

CapTrader accepts no liability for direct or indirect damage caused by and/or in connection with the distribution and/or use.

The information, opinions and statements correspond to the status at the time of preparation of the marketing communication. They may be outdated due to future developments without the publication being changed.

CapTrader is not obliged to update, amend or supplement the information if a circumstance mentioned in this publication or a statement, estimate or forecast contained therein changes or becomes inaccurate. The presentation of the performance of financial instruments over previous periods does not provide a reliable indication of their future performance. No guarantee can therefore be given for the future price, value or income of any financial instrument mentioned in this publication.

Despite careful control of the content, we assume no liability for the content of external links. The operators of the linked pages are solely responsible for their content.

Distribution: This publication may only be distributed in accordance with the laws of the respective countries, and persons in possession of this publication should inform themselves about the applicable local regulations. The information contained herein is not intended for natural or legal persons who, due to their place of residence or business, are subject to a foreign legal system that imposes restrictions on the distribution of such information. The contents are therefore exclusively in German. In particular, this publication contains neither an offer nor an invitation to purchase securities to citizens of the USA, Great Britain and Australia.

Taxes: The tax treatment of financial instruments depends on the personal circumstances of the respective investor and may be subject to future changes, which may also have a retroactive effect.

Email:

info@captrader.com

Send e-mail

Phone:

Hotline (Germany)
0800-8723370

Hotline (International)
00800-08723370

Further contact options