Dear traders, dear stock market friends.
The positive sentiment on the stock markets continued in the past trading week. The Nasdaq 100 Index rose by 2.2% on a weekly basis and reached another all-time high, closing at 24,626 points. The Fed's interest rate decision and the prospect of further rate cuts by the end of the year were one of the main drivers of the latest rally.
Nasdaq 100 rises on record volume
The Nasdaq 100 is now up 17.2% since the beginning of the year and the technology index has gained more than 24 % over the last 12 months. As you can see on the following weekly chart, the rally since April has been accompanied by a strong increase in volume. After the largest volume bar on a weekly basis for many years emerged at the beginning of April, the volume recently rose sharply with the breakout to the annual high (last week of June), as well as last week after the Fed's interest rate decision.
In a rally under such strong volume, the probability of a trend continuation is very high, at least until strong selling or reversal signals occur under high volume.
It is also worth noting that the Nasdaq 100 has been able to build up relative strength again since the beginning of September, which is not only a bullish signal for the index itself, but also for the broad market. The following chart shows the correlation line between the QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) and the SPY (S&P 500 ETF). The correlation indicator below the chart measures the correlation between the relationship line and the S&P 500. A correlation in positive territory can be interpreted to mean that the broad market is benefiting from an outperformance of the Nasdaq 100. In other words, if the relationship line rises, it is very likely that the stock market as a whole will rise.
Interest rate turnaround provides tailwind for technology stocks
After months of waiting, the Fed cut interest rates last Wednesday, September 17, for the first time since December 2024. The change from a restrictive to a loose or supportive monetary policy came as no surprise, as there had already been increasing signs of easing in the preceding weeks.
The technology sector is likely to benefit particularly strongly from this paradigm shift. Growth-oriented technology companies benefit directly from lower interest rates as their future cash flows are valued higher at lower discount rates. This partly explains the continued strength of the Nasdaq 100 despite its traditionally weak September performance, which historically stands at -0.6% since 1990.
The reason for the turnaround in monetary policy lies primarily in the deteriorating labor market situation, which Fed Chairman Jerome Powell cited as the main reason for the interest rate cut. The latest labor market data signal a significant slowdown: Only 22,000 new jobs were created in August, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. These figures are in sharp contrast to the robust employment growth of recent years and point to a noticeable slowdown in economic momentum. Also noteworthy is the revision of the June data to -13,000 jobs, which underscores the increasing weakness of the labor market.
Further interest rate cuts are expected
While the most recent interest rate cut hardly surprised any market participants, the prospect of further rate cuts is ensuring that sentiment remains positive. Jerome Powell and other Fed representatives have signaled that further cuts totalling 50 basis points are possible by the end of the year, which could provide an additional tailwind for the technology sector. This expectation is already reflected in the interest rate markets, where short-term interest rates are pricing in cuts for the two remaining Fed meetings this year.
Geopolitics and trade dispute
Despite the positive developments on the "interest rate front", the ongoing tensions in geopolitics and trade policy should not be forgotten. US tariff policy and its inflationary effects create a complex environment in which the Fed must navigate between supporting growth and controlling inflation. Of particular relevance to the technology sector is the impact on the semiconductor industry, where tensions with China and the associated technology restrictions remain a potential negative factor.
Bullish signals for Magnificent 7 shares
With an index weighting of around 60 %, the performance of the Magnificent Seven stocks remains one of the most important factors for the performance of the Nasdaq 100 Index. While all seven stocks are in clear primary uptrends, we have seen some company-specific and chart-related developments in the last two weeks in particular that have provided a new boost.
Apple share benefits from strong iPhone 17 demand
Apple shares made significant gains in the past trading week, almost completely recovering their losses for the year to date. The decisive factors were optimistic analyst comments and reports of strong demand for the latest iPhone model, which boosted confidence in Apple's sales prospects.
Nvidia invests in Intel
There was a real bang in the chip industry last week: Nvidia is investing USD 5 billion in Intel and is therefore expected to hold a stake of around USD 4 % in Intel. Both companies plan to cooperate in the development of new chips for data centers and PCs in order to combine Nvidia's AI and graphics technology with Intel's processor expertise. Despite the partnership, Nvidia will remain with TSMC as a manufacturing partner for its most advanced AI chips for the time being. On a weekly basis, Nvidia's shares were unable to gain on balance, but after a performance of more than 100 % since the low in April, a breather is more than overdue and hardly surprising.
Positive news for Microsoft
There was recent relief for Microsoft on the regulatory side: the EU Commission accepted Microsoft's concessions regarding the bundling of Teams with Office, averting the threat of a competition fine. Microsoft shares rose as a result, as an uncertainty factor was removed and the important cloud and software business can continue undisturbed.
Tesla share with important breakout
Tesla shares topped the list of last week's Magnificent 7 winners with a gain of 7.6 %. Tesla benefited on the one hand from the general "risk-on" sentiment (i.e. the risk appetite for growth stocks is increasing, which is boosting high-beta stocks such as Tesla). In addition, reports on progress in autonomous driving and news regarding possible delivery figures for the Tesla robot created an optimistic mood.
With the rise above the USD 350 mark, Tesla shares achieved an important technical breakout from the consolidation formation that has lasted for several months.
Google share continues to explode
Google announced an extensive partnership with PayPal to reshape the digital payments sector with the help of AI. PayPal's payment solutions (including Checkout and Payout services) will be integrated across multiple Google platforms, from cloud services to advertising and YouTube. At the same time, Google is contributing its AI expertise to improve the security and user-friendliness of payment processes. The cooperation between the two industry giants shows that tech companies are continuing to ramp up their investments in AI and opening up new areas of business. Google shares rose 5.8 % last week and continued their upward trend unabated.
Author: Tobias Schmid
Date: 22.09.2025
