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Nasdaq 100 Forecast & Analysis: Interest rate cut creates positive sentiment

A stock chart showing the price movements of the Nasdaq 100 index with trend lines, support and resistance levels, moving averages and volume bars. Red arrows indicate possible future price directions. This automatically saved draft provides a detailed overview for analysis.

Dear trader, dear stock market friends.

Last Wednesday, the Fed let the cat out of the bag and lowered key interest rates by 50 basis points. Following an initial rally immediately after the interest rate decision, the stock markets gave up most of their gains by the end of trading, before positive sentiment returned on Thursday and caused prices to rise. In contrast to the S&P 500 and Dow Jones, however, the Nasdaq 100 was not yet able to reach a new all-time high. With a price increase of 1.42 %, the gain on a weekly basis was also rather moderate. Nevertheless, both the technical and fundamental outlook remains bullish in the medium and long term.

Jerome Powell's speech brings relief

Although it was already clear before the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday last week that a rate cut would take place, it was still unclear whether it would be 50 basis points or just 25 basis points. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut of 50 basis points had increased slightly in the days leading up to the Fed meeting.

Even though lower interest rates tend to be bullish for the equity markets, the reaction of the equity markets was uncertain. An interest rate hike of 50 basis points could also be interpreted as a sign of an increasing risk of recession, which in turn would be a negative signal for the stock markets. For this reason, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the subsequent press conference was a particular focus of attention. Powell emphasized that the decision to cut interest rates was in line with the progress made in the fight against inflation and should also keep the labour market stable. As inflation is close to the target of 2 %, the scope for further interest rate cuts in the coming months remains open.

The soft landing scenario is still the basic scenario for most analysts. However, if, contrary to expectations, signs of an increased risk of recession emerge in the coming months, this is likely to have a significant negative impact on the stock market. As long as this is not the case, the chances of the bull market continuing are very good from a fundamental perspective.

Bullish breakout from triangle

The Nasdaq 100 Index broke out of the triangle formation to the upside on Thursday. A triangle is a bullish consolidation formation in an uptrend. A breakout from the triangle signals further bullish potential in the coming weeks.

Nasdaq 100 daily chart

Nasdaq 100 Index daily chart

Resistance at 20,000 points

After breaking out of the triangle, the Nasdaq 100 rose to the horizontal resistance in the area of the round and psychologically important 20,000 point mark. A short-term setback in the next few days and a retest of the downtrend line of the triangle would open up a new opportunity for an entry out of the correction. In addition, the daily EMAs 20 (purple) and 50 (green) are likely to rise further over the next few days and provide additional support in the 19,500 points area. Should the breakout above the 20,000 points take place directly and without a prior correction, waiting for a short-term correction and a retest of the 20,000 points would be another alternative for a bullish trade.

Outlook remains bullish

Both the technical and fundamental outlook remain bullish at the moment. The seasonally weak September is not quite over yet. However, in the current market environment, short-term setbacks can primarily be seen as an opportunity to go long. It should also not be forgotten that the upcoming US elections in November are likely to become more of a focus for Wall Street in the coming weeks and could leave their mark. Historically, the stock markets are often susceptible to setbacks in the weeks before the election, but in the weeks after the election, the chances of prices rising again are all the better. The decisive factor here is not even necessarily who wins the election, but rather the fact that the uncertainty disappears from the market after the election and investors know what they are up against.

Author: Tobias Schmid
Date: 23.09.2024

A man with slicked-back hair and a trimmed beard, wearing a navy blue suit jacket and a white shirt, looks into the camera with a slight smile. Industrial background.
Tobias Schmid

Tobias Schmid has been a trader and analyst since 2008 and specializes in trading futures options and equity options. His strategies and analysis methods are based on a combination of technical analysis, intermarket analysis and sentiment analysis. Tobias Schmid is also the founder of Fomo Financea financial website for active traders, investors and options traders.

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