Dear traders, dear stock market friends.
The S&P 500 ended the last trading week, from March 23rd to 27th, with a negative signal once again. The bottom line was the fifth consecutive week of losses, underscoring the continued weakness in the US stock market. On a weekly basis, the decline was around 2.1 %, while the downward pressure intensified again over the course of the week, despite temporary attempts at recovery. What was particularly striking was that the market had hoped for a de-escalation at the beginning of the week, but was unable to confirm this hope by Friday. That, precisely, is currently the core of the problem: the market repeatedly attempts a counter-movement but cannot find a stable basis for a sustainable recovery.
The underlying environment remains tense.
Last week, the S&P 500 once again struggled with a combination of geopolitical uncertainty, rising oil prices, higher yields, and increasingly defensive sentiment. Precisely this mix of multiple simultaneous headwinds led to sustained downward pressure and an environment where short-term rallies are sold off and investors tend to reduce risk rather than build new positions heading into the weekend.
Iran conflict and oil price remain dominant macro theme
The Iran war remains the dominant macro theme for the stock market. While hopes for diplomatic progress briefly stabilized markets at the beginning of the week, sentiment then soured again. As long as there are no credible signals for a genuine de-escalation, the news flow from the Middle East will remain the dominant theme for the markets.
With the persistently high oil prices, risks to energy supply and a possible new inflationary surge remain. This burdens the stock market doubly: higher oil prices depress margins and consumption, while at the same time, fear of inflation and weaker growth is increasing.
Rising Treasury yields and renewed inflation concerns
An indicator of concern about persistently higher inflation is the development in the bond market: yields on 2-year U.S. Treasuries rose to around 4 %. 10-year notes are trading at just under 4.5 % , and at the long end, yields are close to 5 % .
Rising interest rates are putting pressure on growth stocks in particular because high valuations are harder to justify. It is crucial that the increase in yield is not due to improved growth expectations, but to renewed inflation concerns.
This is precisely what makes the situation difficult for the stock market right now: high energy prices and rising costs are fueling fears of a stagflationary environment, meaning weaker growth with persistent inflation. At the same time, this reduces hopes for a swift easing of monetary policy.
Weaker sentiment and economic signals from the USA
There was no real relief from the economic front either. Several data points indicated that uncertainty is now spilling over into business and consumer sentiment. Particularly striking is the decline in consumer confidence: the corresponding index fell to 53.3 in March from 56.6 in February. At the same time, short-term inflation expectations rose to 3.8 %. This shows that consumers are very much aware of the increase in energy prices and are beginning to prepare for a more difficult environment. 
Furthermore, the Services PMI fell to an 11-month low, consumer confidence declined, and the GDPNow estimate was lowered. While not all signals were negative, the overall picture matched the market reaction: current economic data does not yet signal a recession, but it also cannot provide reassurance. In an already nervous market, this is enough to further dampen risk appetite.
Technical analysis outlook for the S&P 500: these levels are now crucial
The technical chart picture of the S&P 500 remains weak. The index is in an intact secondary downtrend, characterized by lower highs and lower lows. Furthermore, the last important correction low of the primary uptrend at 6540 points has been broken, as has the daily EMA-200.
The next support and resistance zones
With the break of the above-mentioned support levels and the 50-week EMA, the path downward is now technically clear down to the 6,130 point area. Should the market fall to this level in the coming days and weeks, a short-term recovery is to be expected, and it should be closely monitored whether clear reversal signals emerge and risk appetite returns, or if we are only seeing a “dead cat bounce.” As long as significantly visible buying volume does not return to the market, a bullish scenario remains unlikely.
In the event of an immediate upward movement in the new week, the short-term relevant resistance is located at 6,540 points, as well as just above it with the EMA-200. Only when these resistances can be overcome will the chart picture brighten again.
Author: Tobias Schmid
Date: 03/30/2026
