The ongoing AI euphoria in the US is currently overshadowing the geopolitical risks surrounding the unresolved Iran conflict. While hopes for diplomatic progress repeatedly provide support in the stock market, the reactions are becoming increasingly muted. Investors are clearly no longer blindly driving every hope for peace upwards. Market participants have been disappointed too often in recent months because of this. The publication of US labor market data, scheduled for Friday, is likely to cast a shadow ahead.
Please note that despite the regional holiday „Corpus Christi“ on Thursday, the stock exchange in Frankfurt am Main will remain open as usual.
DAX
USA and Iran break ceasefire – further mutual attacks reported
A solution to the Iran conflict is still pending. According to their own statements, the US repelled Iranian attacks on various targets in the Gulf region on the night of Tuesday to Wednesday. In response, „self-defense strikes“ were also carried out on an Iranian military facility.
Despite an existing ceasefire, new attacks were reported. For several weeks, Washington and Tehran have been negotiating a so-called framework agreement with Pakistan's mediation. However, a final agreement is still pending to date.
Despite geopolitical uncertainty, investors are still betting on a swift peace in the Middle East and thus, in particular, on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
ADP data could provide an appetizer for US labor market data – keep an eye on ISM Purchasing Managers
From the perspective of the economic calendar, potential catalysts are consistently on the agenda.
This afternoon, the ADP employment data (3:15 PM) will be released first, which should provide an initial preview of the NFPs.
The U.S. ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) could also provide important signals (4:00 PM).
On Thursday, the focus is usually on the weekly U.S. initial jobless claims report (2:30 PM).
NFPs in Focus on Friday: Economists Expect Significant Employment Slowdown Compared to Previous Month
The trading week will be rounded off by the official US labor market data (Non-Farm Payrolls) at 2:30 PM.
According to current estimates, economists expect job growth outside of agriculture for the past month to be 85,000 positions, after a total of 115,000 new jobs were created in April.
The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged from the previous month at 4.3 percent.
Fed meeting and Kevin Warsh in focus
Markets are likely to seek new insights into the configuration of US monetary policy primarily from the new job data. According to current figures, 98.4 percent of market participants, based on data from CME Group's „FedWatch Tool,“ expect an interest rate pause at the upcoming Fed meeting (June 17th), while 1.6 percent anticipate a quarter-point rate cut.
Furthermore, it remains exciting to see what rhetoric the new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will adopt.
At the beginning of his tenure, he communicated in a letter to employees that he aimed for far-reaching reforms. „We will not cling to past practices if we find better alternatives,“ it said.
