Even though the stock exchanges in Germany will remain closed on Thursday, trading will resume on Wall Street on Boxing Day. Overall, however, investors are likely to continue to take it easy between the years, especially as the economic calendar is extremely thin. However, the so-called "window dressing" could also provide impetus from Friday in Frankfurt am Main.
DAX chart on a monthly basis
Source: TradingView
Investors take it easy before Christmas - window dressing in view
Investors in Frankfurt am Main stopped taking risks before Christmas. At 19,848 points, the DAX was down 0.2% and thus below the psychologically significant USD 20,000 mark. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index closed at just under 43,300 points on Christmas Eve, around one percent higher on the day.
After only abbreviated trading took place in the USA on Tuesday (Christmas Eve), the stock exchanges remained closed on Wednesday. From today, US investors will be able to trade regularly again, even if there is likely to be no impetus from overseas.
Last but not least, "window dressing", when fund managers try to decorate their portfolios with particularly well-performing stocks and make balance sheet cosmetics shortly before the end of the year, is also likely to cause movement. In this context, investors should be prepared for some unconventional price movements.
Weekly initial claims for US unemployment benefits in focus
Investors in the US are looking ahead to the publication of the weekly initial jobless claims (14:30), which could send out repeated monetary policy signals week after week.
At the beginning of the month, the official labor market report (Non-Farm Payrolls) for the month of November signaled an increase in jobs of 227,000 units, after a total of 200,000 new jobs had been expected in advance. However, the unemployment rate rose contradictorily by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%.
Monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic likely to remain a topic of discussion
In any case, market participants are unlikely to leave much to chance in the coming trading days. One of the key issues could continue to be the question of the future shape of monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic.
On December 18, shortly before Christmas, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered interest rates for the third time this year, but held out the prospect of a more cautious pace for the coming year. The CME Group's "Fed Watch Tool" currently puts the chance of a rate cut at the first meeting in 2025 at just 8.6%.
The European Central Bank (ECB) could also continue to tighten interest rates in the coming year. It remains to be seen what impact the protectionist policies announced by the US President-elect will have on the markets. Trump had announced the introduction of punitive tariffs on imports, for example, sparking fears of a trade war with China and the European Union. The Republican will move into the White House on January 20, 2025.
