There are now more and more warning signs on the German stock market. The renewed slide below the important 25,000-point mark could have left a psychological mark. High oil prices and bond yields, as well as the ongoing political concerns surrounding France, form a triad that dampens investors’ risk appetite. Although no hurricane can be spoken of, the signs of a first strong autumn storm are increasing. Investors must put off their hopes for a Golden October for the time being. The upcoming reporting season in the United States is also likely to be overshadowed by this.
DAX Chart
Fed minutes signal disagreement over interest rate hike
The US Federal Reserve has shown itself divided following its September interest rate hike. The minutes showed disagreement over inflation, the economic situation, and the future monetary policy course.
„With regard to the balance sheet policy, some participants noted that the Treasury markets functioned smoothly, but why there was no emphasis on preparing for market tensions,“ it was stated in the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on September 15 and 16, published on Wednesday evening.
Oil price (West Texas Intermediate)
Weekly initial applications for U.S. unemployment benefits slightly lower than expected
Weekly initial claims for U.S. unemployment benefits fell by 2,000 last week to 197,000 units, the U.S. Department of Labor announced on Thursday. Experts had previously expected 200,000 applications. The development of the U.S. labor market serves as an important factor influencing U.S. monetary policy. A weakening job market could give the Fed a tendency to raise interest rates more slowly. In mid-September, the Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 2023.
Outlook: The reporting season in the USA is likely to bring more uncertainty
In a trading week that is unlikely to be particularly active from an economic calendar perspective, there may still be some momentum on Friday at 16:00 with preliminary data on consumer confidence (University of Michigan). At the same time, investors are also likely to be watching with anticipation for the "kick-off" of the US reporting season, which is set to really pick up momentum with the expected numbers from numerous US banks. Earlier today, US beverage maker PepsiCo (ISIN: US7134481081) had already released its figures.
