The German benchmark index DAX is showing remarkable stability despite the ongoing tensions in the Iran conflict. The Middle East conflict is possibly no longer a shock to the market, but currently just background noise. Investors are aware of geopolitical tensions but are reacting increasingly routinely. Furthermore, the hope for an agreement between the US and Iran could bring back risk appetite.
From the perspective of the economic calendar, things are expected to get exciting on Friday, especially with the US jobs data. Additionally, investors will need to process numerous company financial statements.
DAX
Trump suspends „Project Freedom“ - Peace efforts back in focus
The hope for an agreement between the US and Iran is expected to lure investors out of their reserve. US President Trump wants to temporarily suspend the protection measures for ships in the Strait of Hormuz after only one day. Accordingly, it should be examined whether an agreement with Iran could be reached. Trump wrote on his platform Truth Social that „Project Freedom“ would therefore be suspended „for a short period“ to see if an agreement could be concluded and signed between the United States and Iran.
It remains to be seen whether negotiations will be successful. Even though the Middle East conflict is still unresolved, investors could turn their attention back to growth fantasies in the field of artificial intelligence and ignore geopolitical risks.
Conversely, the danger may still exist that corresponding risks are taken lightly and thus misunderstood. A military escalation could dampen the euphoria at any time.
ADP Data in Focus – All Eyes on the US Labor Market
As early as Wednesday, the ADP employment data could provide an initial appetizer for the NFP release expected on Friday (2:15 PM).
Consequently, the official US labor market data (Non-Farm Payrolls) will be in focus on Friday, which investors should scrutinize for indications on monetary policy (2:30 PM). According to current estimates, economists expect job growth of only 60,000 units, after 178,000 new jobs were created in March. The separately determined unemployment rate could remain unchanged compared to the previous month at 4.3 percent.
Last but not least, preliminary consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan will be on the agenda at 4:00 PM.
Earnings season is gaining momentum here in this country.
In Frankfurt am Main, the results of Infineon (ISIN: DE0006231004), Daimler Truck (ISIN: DE000DTR0CK8), HeidelbergCement (ISIN: DE0006047004), Fresenius (ISIN: DE0005785604), Continental (ISIN: DE0005439004), Covestro (ISIN: DE0006062144), Lufthansa (ISIN: DE0008232125), Hugo Boss (ISIN: DE000A1PHFF7), and HelloFresh (ISIN: DE000A161408) for the past business quarter are in focus today.
On Thursday, Siemens Healthineers (ISIN: DE000SHL1006), Vonovia (ISIN: DE000A1ML7J1), and Henkel (ISIN: DE0006048432) will report, followed by Commerzbank (ISIN: DE000CBK1001) on Friday.
The figures from various companies across the Atlantic may also be of interest. Before the US opening (PMO) today, Walt Disney (ISIN: US2546871060) will report. On Thursday, McDonald's (PMO) (ISIN: US5801351017) and Coinbase (AMC) (ISIN: US19260Q1076) will release their figures.
