Hopes of an end to the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the US interest rate cut fantasies picking up speed again could lure investors back to the stock market in the second half of the week.
It should be noted that Wall Street will be closed on Thursday for „Thanksgiving“ and that there will only be half-day trading in the USA on Friday, meaning that impetus from overseas is likely to be in short supply.
DAX
Ukraine-Russia conflict: geopolitical signs of détente provide a boost
This Wednesday, the foreign ministers of the EU member states want to discuss the further course of the conflict in a video conference. US President Donald Trump recently backed out of a promised target date (Thursday) for a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia.
Representatives from the USA, Ukraine and various EU states had already discussed a so-called 28-point plan to end the war, which the USA had presented, on Sunday in Switzerland.
US monetary policy likely to remain a perennial issue - Fed representatives fuel rate cut fantasies
As in previous weeks, the question marks over the future shape of the economy are likely to remain one of the key topics of discussion on the market. After dampened rate cut fantasies acted as a negative factor at the beginning of last week, it was Fed central banker John Williams (New York) who on Friday brought back hopes of a rate cut on December 10, 2025. Williams said that the Fed could cut interest rates „in the near future“ without jeopardizing its inflation target. At the beginning of the week, comments from another Fed representative, Governor Christopher Waller, also added fuel to the fire. In his opinion, the available data indicated that the US job market was weak enough for an interest rate cut of a quarter of a percentage point.
After last week's concerns about a possible bursting of the AI bubble, confidence that the hype will continue could also provide a tailwind again.
Interest rate cut more likely again in December according to the CME Group's „Fed Watch Tool“
Most recently, the CME Group's „Fed Watch Tool“ had signaled an interest rate cut of 25 basis points on December 10 with a probability of around 85%. A week ago, this probability was still around 50 percent.
GfK consumer confidence, German retail sales and inflation data in focus
The so-called GfK consumer confidence is expected on Thursday at 08:00.
Also on the agenda are consumer confidence and the business climate index for the eurozone (11:00 a.m.).
On Friday, retail sales and preliminary inflation data for the Federal Republic of Germany will be on the agenda first (14:00).
