There is no sign of the record sentiment on Wall Street on the trading floor in Frankfurt for the time being. As investors are now increasingly focusing on Donald Trump as the future US president following the recent events of last weekend, the uncertainty surrounding the potential deterioration in trade relations between Europe and the US remains acute. Market participants are now likely to focus on the ECB meeting.
DAX Chart
Source: Tradingview
Trump could back punitive tariffs against trading partners on his return to the White House
Investors fear that if Trump returns to the White House, he will increasingly focus on an "America First strategy" and introduce punitive tariffs against his trading partners, among other things. In addition, J.D. Vance, who is seen as a "hardliner", has been appointed as his running mate in the US election.
Focus on EU inflation and numerous Fed speeches
From the perspective of the economic data calendar, today is likely to be exciting with new EU inflation data (11:00 a.m.). Inflation in June is expected to be 2.9% higher than in the same month last year and thus unchanged from May.
As on Monday and Tuesday, Fed representatives are likely to provide impetus from the US side. Speeches by Barkin (Richmond/15:00) and Waller (Governor/15:35) are expected.
The so-called "Beige Book" at 20:00 should provide information on the current economic trend.
ECB likely to leave key interest rates unchanged - All eyes on Christine Lagarde
Thursday should undoubtedly be dominated by the ECB meeting, even if no change to the current key interest rate level of 4.25 percent is expected (14:15). ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to address the public half an hour later.
The week will once again end with numerous speeches by Fed representatives. Logan (Dallas/19:45) is expected to speak on Thursday evening and Daly (San Francisco/00:05), Bowman (Governor/01:45), Williams (New York/16:40) and Bostic (Atlanta/19:00) on Thursday night.
On Monday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at an event organized by the Economic Club of Washington that although he sees progress on the inflation front, this does not yet signal a turnaround in interest rates. Investors are hoping for a first rate cut next September.
Stimulus from the current US reporting season is also conceivable at any time. On Thursday, streaming service Netflix will publish its quarterly figures, among others. On Friday, American Express, Schlumberger and Travelers Companies will be in the spotlight.
