Ahead of the publication of fresh US inflation data and the ECB Fed meeting, investors on the German stock market are likely to keep their feet still. The uncertainty surrounding monetary policy uncertainties is too great.
All in all, investors should continue to hope for a year-end rally. The Fed's decision on key interest rates in a week's time could also soon cast its shadow.
DAX Chart
Source: TradingView
Economists expect US inflation to rise - core rate could tread water
Investors are eagerly awaiting the publication of new US inflation data today (14:30).
According to current estimates, economists expect an increase of 2.7 percent compared to the same month last year, after 2.6 percent in October.
However, the core rate, which excludes the drivers energy and food, could remain at 3.3%. An unexpected rise in inflation could put a damper on existing interest rate cut fantasies.
Fourth interest rate hike by ECB conceivable this year - Lagarde speech in focus
In particular, the last meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) in 2024 is likely to attract renewed interest on Thursday. The key interest rate decision is expected at 14:15. President Christine Lagarde will speak just 30 minutes later.
The ECB is therefore about to cut interest rates for the fourth time this year. The deposit rate, which is decisive for the financial market, could fall by a further 25 basis points to 3.0%. This allows banks to invest excess liquidity with the ECB in the short term.
US producer prices could provide important inflation indicators
Once again, important price data will be published with the producer price data for the United States (14:30). These figures are also seen as a guideline for the coming inflation trend. In this case, experts expect an increase of 0.2 percent compared to the previous month (previously: 0.2 percent).
Weekly applications for US unemployment benefits also in focus - Fed meeting likely to cast its shadow ahead
The weekly initial claims for US unemployment benefits are also likely to attract interest at 14:30. Market participants may be waiting for clues about the state of the labor market in the world's largest economy, especially after the latest US jobs report last Friday. A total of 227,000 new non-farm jobs were created last month, more than expected. However, the unemployment rate climbed by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%.
However, relevant economic data is not on the agenda on Friday. Instead, investors are likely to rack their brains over the future interest rate cut path of the US Federal Reserve, which meets for the last time this year on December 18. According to the CME Group's "Fed Watch Tool", there is currently an 86.1% chance that interest rates will be cut by a quarter of a percentage point.
