The DAX is likely to remain a plaything of geopolitical news from the Middle East for the time being. Markets are currently oscillating between hope and fear of escalation. The recent seesaw market could remain intact amidst the Iran conflict, AI euphoria, and volatile signals from Washington.
Above all, the concern about a renewed military escalation between the US and Iran is weighing on investors' risk appetite. The upcoming quarterly figures from NVIDIA could offer some distraction. Even strong numbers are likely to have difficulty completely smoothing out the worried frowns surrounding the Iran conflict. AI euphoria is currently colliding with harsh geopolitical realities.
DAX
Breathing room in the trade dispute between the EU and the USA – investors fear renewed military escalation in the Middle East
Recent developments in the trade dispute between the European Union and the United States could provide mild relief for the market. Representatives of the European Parliament and member states have agreed on the implementation of a customs regulation that was agreed upon last year. Accordingly, EU tariffs on US industrial goods are to be progressively abolished.
Trump had threatened additional tariffs if no agreement was reached by July 4.
However, investors are likely to continue to view developments in the Middle East with concern. Whether a diplomatic solution will be reached remains questionable. Trump had recently postponed an attack on Iran originally planned for last Tuesday, it was said.
FOMC minutes in focus tonight – monetary policy stimulus possible
Tonight, particular focus will be on the minutes from the recent Fed meeting (FOMC Minutes), which are expected at 8:00 PM.
Despite dynamic developments in the Iran conflict, US monetary policy is likely to remain an important factor, especially as investors increasingly face inflation and thus interest rate concerns.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, 96.7 percent of market participants expect an interest rate pause on June 17th, and 3.3 percent expect a 25 basis point rate cut.
Purchasing managers on both sides of the Atlantic in focus on Thursday
On Thursday, initial estimates from various purchasing managers (S&P Global) for the manufacturing, services, and composite sectors will come into focus in this country (09:30 AM).
The counterparts for the European side are expected at 10:00 AM and for the US side at 3:45 PM.
To close out the week, pay attention to the GfK consumer confidence (08:00) and the ifo business climate index (10:00).
Earnings Season: NVIDIA's Figures Release Casts a Shadow
This evening after the US stock market closes, NVIDIA's (ISIN: US67066G1040) results for the past fiscal quarter will also be in focus. On Thursday, NIO (ISIN: US62914V1061) and Walmart (ISIN: US9311421039) will report in the US.
