DAX investors are likely to be eagerly awaiting the publication of important US economic data. Meanwhile, the punitive tariffs recently announced by Trump could continue to cause unease. Investors are likely to have welcomed the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, which will at least temporarily push geopolitical risks into the background.
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Source: TradingView
Donald Trump announces tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada and China
The announcement of tariffs by US President-elect Donald Trump caused investors to become increasingly concerned in the first half of the week. The Republican announced his intention to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% on Chinese imports. Against this backdrop, car manufacturers in particular have recently found themselves in trouble. Overall, however, investors are likely to continue to fear Donald Trump's unpredictability and, not least, a trade war with the eurozone.
GfK gloomy for December - Focus on important US economic data
Already this morning, consumer confidence from GfK signaled a deterioration (-23.3 points), after -18.6 points in the previous month. German consumer sentiment is therefore likely to deteriorate further in December.
Investors will be focusing on numerous US economic data this afternoon, which could send important signals. In particular, investors are hoping for monetary policy signals, such as the PCE core deflator for personal consumption expenditures at 2:30 pm. Economists expect an increase of 2.80 percent compared to the same month last year, after 2.70 percent in October. This data is also seen as an important guide to future inflation trends.
At the same time, investors are also looking at the growth rate for US gross domestic product (GDP) and incoming orders for durable goods.
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane will have his say at 19:00.
German inflation likely to pick up again somewhat - Wall Street to remain closed on Thursday for "Thanksgiving"
Preliminary inflation rates for the Federal Republic of Germany are on the agenda on Thursday at 14:00. An inflation rate of 2.2 percent (compared to the same month last year) is expected, after 2.0 percent in October. The rise in inflation could come at the expense of the general interest rate cut fantasies in the eurozone. On December 12, the ECB will hold its last scheduled meeting of the year to decide on future monetary policy.
At the beginning of the week, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel urged caution with regard to a further easing of interest rates. "We will decide whether a further interest rate hike will follow in December on the basis of the data available at that time," he said. "There is also a very real risk that the new US government will take trade policy measures that will also be reflected in higher inflation here in Germany"
As the stock exchanges in the USA will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, there is likely to be a corresponding lack of guidance on the last trading day of the week, especially as there will only be a shortened trading session in the USA.
On Friday, investors will finally turn their attention to consumer price data for the eurozone (11:00 a.m.).
Important China data is on the agenda for the night from Friday to Saturday, meaning that investors will not be able to react until the following Monday. In addition to the PMI production index, the counterpart for the non-manufacturing sector is likely to provide important impetus.
