Last week, a media report revealed plans for new US attacks on Iran that sharply boosted oil prices ahead of the US midterm elections. However, US President Donald Trump denied any resumption of military operations before the elections. However, the Iran war remains the dominant topic in the energy markets. After a price decline at the beginning of the week, the crude oil price (WTI) is rising again.
Oil price (West Texas Intermediate)
Inflation development in the USA remains a focus
The recent oil price increases are likely to have an impact on inflation developments in the USA. The US crude oil variety WTI has risen by seven percent on a monthly basis. On a three-month basis, a gain of almost 33 percent is even on the charts.
New inflation figures from the US are expected on Wednesday (14:30). According to economists, inflation in September should have been 3.7 percent compared to the same month of the previous year, which is significantly higher than in August (3.4 percent). The core inflation rate, which is the key indicator for the US Federal Reserve (Fed), is expected to be 2.5 percent, which is also above the estimates (2.4 percent).
On Thursday, there is also likely to be important impetus from US producer prices (14:30), which could have potential implications for inflation developments and thus monetary policy. On October 28, the Fed will meet to decide on the future level of the key interest rate. According to the "Fed-Watch Tool" from CME Group, 80.6 percent of market participants currently expect a pause in interest rates.
